2023 NFL Draft: Stock up, stock down from Week 3 of CFB

Texas Tech pass rusher Tyree Wilson has racked up 21 tackles, 5.5 TFLs, and 2.5 sacks through three games. Photo Credit: Texas Tech Athletics

Coming off one of the wildest weeks of college football in recent memory, Week 3 was just a little anticlimactic (other than that incredible Florida State win on Friday night—Johnny Wilson is a dude to watch). Despite the lack of quality games, there was no shortage of 2023 NFL Draft talent suiting up on Saturday. 

It was a weekend showcase for offensive playmakers with Georgia and Oklahoma lighting up once proud programs at noon, followed by Oregon, Penn State, and Ole Miss all hanging over 40 in the afternoon, and Ohio State and USC showing no signs of slowing down in the evening. The game that was supposed to get eyeballs was deflated with Texas A&M falling to Appalachian State the previous week, and the game itself was agonizing the way Miami (and its star QB prospect) didn’t show up at all.

Unlike the coming weeks, as conference play starts to really begin, the lack of marquee games in Week 3 allowed for a closer look at teams (and as result, prospects) who might not always get the most attention due to their teams’ less than stellar records. Many of those prospects reminded viewers why they’re near the top of draft boards while others didn’t take advantage of the chance to make their names known to casual viewers.

Prospect of the Week:

Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon

In one of the few Top-25 matchups of the weekend, the Oregon Ducks rebounded from their opening season drubbing at the hands of the Georgia Bulldogs with a statement win over the No. 12 BYU Cougars. It was a credit to new head coach Dan Lanning’s defense for stymying Jeff Grimes offensive attack for four quarters and making star quarterback Jaren Hall look human for stretches.

There’s plenty of individual credit to go around for the way the Ducks slowed BYU (Brandon Dorlus and DJ Johnson both had huge games), but nobody was flashier than Christian Gonzalez. The Colorado transfer had some hiccups against UG in the opener but looked every bit the potential first-round pick against the Cougars that he had been touted as coming into the season. 

Hall was smart with the football throughout the game, rarely putting it into conflict which meant limited targets Gonzalez way. The corner spent the vast majority of the game smothering BYU’s receivers (it’s worth noting they were without their top two pass catchers) with his press technique and rare athletic traits. All in all, he was targeted three times (giving up just one short catch), and in two of those situations he showed why he could be the first corner selected in April.

The first pass breakup came on a third and five fade ball where Gonzalez’s patient feet and ability to mirror were on full display. Most importantly on the rep, he got his head around with while in phase to locate and disrupt the pass. The other breakup also came on a key money down with Gonzalez showing his reaction speed and physicality on a quick slant. First, he baited Hall into thinking he was dropping in zone to ensure the ball came his way and then broke on the slant timing it perfectly to cause the incompletion.

With his rare athleticism (No. 25 on Bruce Feldman’s Freaks List) and press-man technique, Gonzalez has the makeup of a top tier cornerback prospect. If he continues to build on this performance, there’s a real chance he’s a top-10 pick in a few months.

For the second time today Oregon’s Christian Gonzalez breaks up a pass on third down. Baits the QB into thinking he’s dropping in zone and then shows the closing speed to break up the slant. The transfer is showing why he’s a top CB in the 2023 NFL Draft. pic.twitter.com/zfqyUpEUYD

— Bobby Football (@Rob__Paul) September 17, 2022

Stock Up:

Tyree Wilson, EDGE, Texas Tech

Last season Tyree Wilson had a bowl game performance that put his name on the map. His two sacks against Mississippi State in the Liberty Bowl had draftnik’s buzzing about his rare length and power. Over the summer that hype built as folks dug in on the Texas A&M transfers tape and by the time the season arrived, he was a consensus top five edge rusher in the 2023 NFL Draft class.

All he has done through three games this season is confirm the hype is real. After turning in 13.5 TFLs and 7 sacks in his first season starting in Lubbock, Wilson has taken his game up a notch. That growth showed out in a 27-14 loss to NC State on Saturday where he attempted to put the whole damn team on his back by nearly singlehandedly ruining the Wolfpack’s unblemished record. 

Whilst putting Devin Leary through hell (and helping to expose him as yet another overhyped QB prospect), Wilson finished the day with a jaw-dropping 11 tackles, 3.5 TFLs, and 2 sacks. He was an unblockable force from start to finish making a major impact both as a run defender and pass rusher. 

It all starts with his power, that’s Wilson’s bread and butter. His ability to get offensive linemen off balance with that initial jolt and then use his vine like arms to shed blocks is preposterous. The most impressive play of the day came when lining up against the left tackle. He threatened outside with a long arm move and knocked the linemen off his block before countering back inside with a swim and splitting the left guard’s help. His second sack came on a key third and five in the second half where he used speed-to-power to drive the right tackle back and got off the block with an inside swim. 

When he wasn’t harassing Leary, he was highlighting what he can do as a run defender. When he was play side he did a magnificent job using that strength and length to set the edge and wash runs back inside—he even made a few chase down plays too. There were also numerous times he flew backside to chase down a back, the explosive athleticism and motor are underrated aspects of his game.

The Red Raiders may not be the sexiest team in the country, but head coach Joey McGuire has the team playing hard and Wilson is the poster boy for the way they want to play. His physical tools, developing pass rush plan, and absurd production will be the reason he’s a first-round selection down the road.

One of the best performances on Saturday among prospects in the 2023 NFL Draft was Texas Tech’s Tyree Wilson. His length and power is terrifying. Threatens outside with the long arm to get the LT off balance before countering in with the swim and splitting the double for a sack. pic.twitter.com/rvBfLyHtKT

— Bobby Football (@Rob__Paul) September 19, 2022

Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State

Each year a prospect comes out of nowhere to become a Draft Twitter darling in their first season as a starter and Penn State left tackle Olumuyiwa Fashanu has done just that. After starting only the bowl game against Arkansas last season, Fashanu had some buzz—it was sort of like, if you know, you know with him. Now with three more starts under his belt, he could be yet another first-round talent at offensive tackle in the Big Ten.

His biggest and best test of the season came Saturday as the Nittany Lions took on Auburn. Fashanu spent much of the day dealing with the Tigers dynamic duo of Derick Hall and Colby Wooden, both could be top-100 selections in the upcoming draft. It wouldn’t be shocking to see a player as raw as Fashanu struggle with two talented SEC pass rushers, but he more than held his own.

For much of the game Fashanu dominated the pair, particularly in pass protection. His smooth movement skills, length, and anchor were too much for Hall and Wooden as he shut them out. When they threatened outside, he consistently reached his landmarks to wash them out of the play. When they came at him with power, he relied on his base and anchor to lock them down. And, when they hit him with an inside move it was his ability to lean on his lateral agility and work back in front of them.

After just four career starts, Penn State left tackle Olumuyiwa Fashanu is creating first-round buzz. Photo Credit: Penn State Athletics.

In the run game his ability to wall off defenders and work in space were impressive. Though, he does need to improve his power at the point of attack and do a better job sustaining blocks—too often he’d have a strong initial push before falling by the wayside.

In what looks to be a very strong offensive tackle class, Fashanu has put himself in the thick of the top tier after just four career starts. The traits are obvious with him and now it’s just about building the resume, especially as Penn State prepares to play Michigan and Ohio State in the coming weeks.

Running backs

Fantasy owners will tell you the last three NFL Draft classes have been disappointing with a lack of depth and stars at the running back position. Only three running backs have been selected in the first-round of the last three classes (none in 2022) with 21 in the top-100 (11 of which came in 2020). There have been just two Pro Bowlers in those classes—Jonathan Taylor and Najee Harris (whose Pro Bowl was a little fraudulent)—and three 1,000-yard rushers—Taylor, Harris, and Antonio Gibson (who played wide receiver at Memphis). Early returns on the 2022 class don’t look overly promising either with only Dameon Pierce and Breece Hall having at least 20 touches through two games.

It looks like the tide could turn in the 2023 NFL Draft class though with the different styles of back and sheer overall talent of the class. And Week 3 perfectly encapsulated what this class could offer.

The cream of the crop is Bijan Robinson (the surest first-round bet of the group), who took on UTSA and was up to his regular tricks of making everyone on the field look silly. His ability to make defenders miss in a phone booth with a nasty jump cut and keep balance through contact was spectacular to watch. He ended up with 202 yards and 3 TDs on 21 touches.

Arguably the second best back in the class, Ole Miss’ Zach Evans, was the star of the week with the way he ran for 134 yards and 2 TDs against Georgia Tech. His combo of open field explosiveness, contact balance, and fluidity are rare. 

Meanwhile Eric Gray had his best game as an Oklahoma Sooner with 113 yards and 2 TDs against Nebraska. His ability to change direction in an instant and use his compact frame to break arm tackles is a big reason why he’s one of the top senior running backs in the country.

In what was supposed to be the biggest game of the night, Texas A&M speedster Devon Achane was the only real offense in the Aggies win over Miami. He finished with 130 total yards on 22 touches and a receiving touchdown that flashed both his underrated contact balance and the elusiveness he’s known for.

Against lesser opponents, Jahmyr Gibbs, Blake Corum, and Travis Dye all turned in strong showings. Gibbs continues to be a miniature Alvin Kamara with the way he can take a game over through the air or on the ground—he had 101 total yards and a score against ULM. Corum didn’t put up massive yardage (71 rushing) but did have a mind-boggling five scores against UConn. His low center of gravity and agility make him tough to bring down. Dye, maybe the best satellite back in the class, helped the Trojans crush Fresno State with 138 yards and a score on 14 touches. He’s a dynamic pass catcher who runs a lot bigger than he is, and most importantly, he pass blocks.

This class has everything in terms of stars, starters, change of pace runners, and complimentary players and could have as many as 10 backs selected top-100.

Stock Down:

Tyler Van Dyke, QB, Miami

All summer there was talk of the 2023 NFL Draft being loaded with first-round quarterbacks, well, that hasn’t quite come to fruition. Outside the obvious (CJ Stroud and Bryce Young), the quarterback class has been disappointing through three weeks of college football. Play has been sporadic, underwhelming, and downright bad. But Saturday gave the first peak at one of those quarterbacks on a major stage and let’s just say Tyler Van Dyke kept the trend going by looking nothing like the first-round talent some had claimed him to be.

Van Dyke was a non-factor for much of the game missing on throw after throw. His stats (21 of 41 for 217 passing yards) got a bump with some late game layups, but it was a dreadful performance for a passer thick in the QB3 race. 

Miami QB Tyler Van Dyke averaged just 5.29 YPA in the 17-9 loss to Texas A&M. Photo Credit: Jack Gorman / Getty Images

In his defense, he was without top receiver Xavier Restrepo and the Hurricanes other pass catchers were poor at best. Though he had nobody to lean on, Van Dyke consistently airmailed outside throws downfield and relied too much on trying to rip tight window throws over the middle. The scariest part was that for a guy known for being able to put some RPMs on the ball, his big arm looked pedestrian.

Even with a solid performance from an offensive line missing Zion Nelson, Van Dyke was out of sync and just didn’t have it against the Aggies. It’s a long season and he’ll have plenty of opportunity to build his stock back, but this was a tough showing with all eyes around the country on him.

Zacch Pickens, IDL, South Carolina

It’s shaping up to be a really special defensive line class between the interior and all the edge rushers. The interior D-line class has been nothing short of spectacular to start the season with some big-time performances from the likes of Jalen Carter, Bryan Bresee, and Gervon Dexter. Those three look like they could all be top-10 picks when it’s said and done, and they were all consensus top-five IDLs entering the season. Another prospect who was being mentioned, at times, in the same breath as those three was South Carolina’s Zacch Pickens.

Unlike those three, Pickens has had a quieter starter to the season. After a rock-solid performance in Week 2 against Arkansas, he was mostly kept at bay as the Gamecocks took on Georgia. The Bulldogs were able to do whatever they wanted on offense and Pickens rarely stood out.

Going up against one of the best interior offensive line prospects in the country, Sedrick Van Pran, Pickens’ lack of technique stood out. The former five-star is still raw both as a pass rusher and run defender. He relies a lot on his motor and athleticism to make plays, which works when taking on an average center in CFB, but Van Pran got the best of him throughout. 

Seeing Pickens get moved out of his gap in the run game and provide little push as a rusher didn’t inspire confidence about him taking his game up another level. The tools are there for him to be a top-50 pick, but until the pass rush plan develops and he learns to play with better leverage and power in the run game, he looks more like a solid starter than a top selection.

Ochaun Mathis, EDGE, Nebraska 

In the era of the Transfer Portal, landing one of the top players on the market can create an abundance of excitement within a program’s fanbase. Ochaun Mathis was one of those players, he had all of Lincoln ready for the return of the Blackshirts as he brought his 25.5 TFLs and 12.5 sacks from TCU to Nebraska. 

Obviously not a lot has gone right for the Cornhuskers through four games, and part of that disappointment has been the hot and cold play of Mathis. Known as one of the most violent pass rushers in the country for the way he aims to take quarterbacks souls when he hits them, Mathis has just one sack so far this season (it came against North Dakota).

He had the perfect opportunity Saturday during the noon slate to remind the country just how talented he is with Oklahoma coming to town. Instead, the Sooners popped off and Nebraska allowed more points to the fellas from Norman than they ever have before. Outside of a few tackles against the run, Mathis was shut out by Oklahoma’s tackle duo of Anton Harrison and Wanya Morris—two NFL talents. At times it was easy to forget he was even on the field as Dillon Gabriel and co. sliced the defense up.

At 6-5, 247 pounds with a lightning quick first step, a ferocious motor, and natural bend, Mathis has the makings of a top-100 pick. The issue is seeing him play more consistent football, not just from game to game, but snap to snap. For him, it all comes back to pass rush plan—utilizing his hands and counters to have something to fall back on when out athleting the opponent won’t work. If he can do that, the sky’s the limit.