Do you know what term gets thrown around in the draft community all too often and makes evaluators like me go red in the face? “Generational”.
I’ve heard that phrase used to describe prospects pretty much every year since I started doing this, all the way back in 2014. I guess if we had a “generational player” at a different position every year it could feasibly make sense, but that’s not the case. Not to get all “Oxford English Dictionary”, but this goes against the definition of a generation, which according to Google is “about 20-30 years”.
So, why has this term become the all-encompassing phrase used to describe the top prospects in seemingly every draft? Is it laziness? A lack of better phrases in the common vernacular? Honestly, I’m not sure. However, this got me thinking. How have the players labelled as “generational” fared at the next level?
The draft is somewhat of a crapshoot and no one ever bats 1.000, but I wanted to see what the hit rate for these once in a “generation” talents is.
Today, we’re going to go year by year from 2014 up until 2021 to see how these players with that pre-draft label have panned out thus far. I’m not including the 2022 draft for two reasons. First, none of them have taken the field in an NFL uniform yet. Second, no one said any of these players were generational because the talent in the class was not on par with recent years.
2014:
Jadeveon Clowney, EDGE, South Carolina
Clowney seemed to have it all when he was in college. He was 6’5 and 266 pounds, a freak athlete (4.53 forty yard dash time), and was nearly unblockable by SEC offensive tackles. After his freshman season, articles about how he could be taken first overall if he were eligible for the 2012 draft, which had Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III taken at the top started to circulate.
The hype was always enormous. Virtually everyone had Clowney as the top overall player in the 2014 NFL Draft. I say virtually everyone because there were the occasional few that strayed in a different direction. Matt Miller, then at Bleacher Report, had Teddy Bridgewater as the number one player in the class with Clowney being ranked right behind him — many of which used the “g-word”.
I also had the draft ranked that way. Merril Hoge (or specifically ESPN’s First Take) tweeted out that Hoge would take Missouri EDGE Michael Sam over Clowney — a statement that was then retracted and changed to Buffalo EDGE Khalil Mack, but Clowney was far and away seen as the top player in that cycle.
Once the draft came, it was no surprise Clowney was taken first overall, but if you were like me and watched the draft on NFL Network, you were treated to an especially juicy soundbite from Mike Mayock.
As Clowney was being congratulated by his family on his way to shake hands with the commissioner, Mayock stated “I try to tell people that when he woke up this morning in a very nice hotel [that] he was the most talented defensive lineman on the planet.” Mayock then continued by mentioning the consistency and effort concerns that were associated with Clowney as a prospect — a fascinating one-two punch.
Mayock then once again reiterated Clowney could be the most dominant player in the league, which shouldn’t come as any surprise given he had at one point during the draft cycle compared him to “Bruce Smith in his heyday”. Steve Marriuci chimed in that his comparison for Clowney was former Patriots great Willie McGinest.
That’s an awful lot of praise heaped on Clowney before he ever even got to the stage to meet Roger Goodell.
At the Pro Level:
The story of Jadeveon Clowney as a pro has not been marred by effort concerns, but rather injuries and a journeyman status. Clowney only managed four games played as a rookie (two of them starts) and seven tackles.
He missed extensive time due to meniscus issues suffered in his NFL debut. He was shut down for the year in December to get microfracture surgery. This would be a poor showing initially for the former Gamecock, but he would play in 13 games the following season and 14 the year after that in 2016- where he was named to the NFL’s top 100 player list for the first time in his career before having a career season in 2017- setting career highs in tackles, sacks, and games played.
In 2019, Clowney was traded to the Seahawks after coming off a season in which he finished with 9 sacks. This trade began somewhat of a decline in Clowney’s career, starting one-year stints with the Seahawks, the Titans, and the Browns (even though he had 9 sacks this past season).
Final Verdict
I wouldn’t say that he’s been “generational” by any means. When it comes to pass rushers taken in that draft, including Khalil Mack and Aaron Donald – both taken after Clowney — Donald is perhaps the only generational talent.
You can look back at that draft and come away with the stance that Clowney was the wrong choice, but he’s been a good player when he’s in the right system and healthy. At his best, he’s a fringe pro-bowl level player and there’s a reason he’s stuck around in the league this long.
Sammy Watkins, WR, Clemson
Sammy Watkins was supposed to be the best young receiver entering the draft in 2014 after his incredible three-year career at Clemson, so when the Bills made him the highest-drafted wide receiver in three years that year, selecting him fourth overall, it was hard to find fault with the selection.
After all, Watkins was coming off a college career where averaged more than 1100 yards per season to go along with two seasons where he had a dozen touchdowns, and he had the size and speed profile NFL teams love.
It was put in an article from ESPN’s Mike Rodak in November of Watkins’ rookie season that the then president of the Buffalo Bills, Russ Brandon, was the one in the team building who coined Watkins as a “generational talent”, so despite there not being any written articles prior to the draft about him in that vein — it counts.
At the Pro LevelThings got off to a great start for Watkins as a rookie as he started all 16 games and caught 65 passes for 982 yards and six touchdowns. He only played in 13 games the next season but improved to 1047 yards and 9 touchdowns.
However, it was all downhill from there. He only played in eight games due to a foot injury in his third year. In his shortened season, he totalled 430 yards (53.8 yards per game). He was then traded to the Rams for his fourth professional season and while he played in 15 games and scored 8 touchdowns, he wasn’t much of a focal point in the team’s offense.
He then went to Kansas City for a three-year stint and had a solid season in the Chiefs’ super bowl campaign where he had 673 yards and three scores. He spent last year with Baltimore and caught 27 passes. This past offseason he signed a one-year deal with the Packers.
Verdict:
Watkins has definitely not met the standards expected of someone labelled “generational” by the team that drafted him. He’s only cracked 600 yards three times, and only once since his second season. He’s spent much of his career as a third or even a fourth option in an offense and when you look at the receivers taken after him, any of Mike Evans, Odell Beckham or Davante Adams have proven to be much better and more consistent players at the NFL level.
2015:
In 2015 there were no players that were given the label, but I’d be remiss if I didn’t include this excerpt from Bleacher Report’s Tyler Conway who said that on the field, Missouri’s Dorial Green Beckham “looks like a Calvin Johnson clone”.
While, yes, Green-Beckham’s measurements were very similar to Johnson’s, that’s pretty much where any of the comparisons end. Calvin Johnson was inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame last year. Dorial Green-Beckham was out of the league at the age of 23 due to poor play and off-field issues and had a career 941 yards- only 58 more yards than his 2013 season at Missouri.
2016
According to my research for the 2016 draft, there were as many as five or six “generational talents” in the class, which already seems like far too many and a blatant slap in the face to the definition.
Before diving into the near-consensus players mentioned, I want to dissect the other names mentioned in UCLA’s Myles Jack and Notre Dame’s Jaylon Smith. Both fell in the draft due to health concerns. Jack with concerns over the long-term health of his knee, and Smith suffered a catastrophic knee injury in the Fiesta Bowl against Ohio St.
Neither met the lofty Pro-Bowl expectations set for them, although Jack has had a much more consistent career for the Jaguars (now with the Steelers) than Smith did for the Cowboys and briefly the Packers and Giants. Smith is not currently signed to any team’s roster.
Jalen Ramsey, DB, Florida St.
Ramsey was a unicorn for the Seminoles from 2013 to 2015 in a career that included a national title as a freshman. By the time Jalen Ramsey was a draft-eligible prospect, college quarterbacks had no interest in testing him down the field.
Everyone from NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah and Mike Mayock to ESPN’s Mel Kiper thought he was going to be special and in an article from Eric Galko, then at Bleacher Report before becoming the current director of scouting for the East-West Shrine Game, labelled Ramsey as generational and stating Ramsey “could become a franchise-changing defensive back.”
Galko continued, writing “the only thing holding Ramsey back would be a poorly designed plan for his development at the NFL level, something that isn’t worth projecting and ideally won’t be an issue”, and if Ramsey landed in the right situation he could have an impact similar to Aqib Talib as a corner or Earl Thomas if he played safety at the next level.
At the NFL Level
I don’t think I’m saying anything mind-blowing when I say that he’s one of the best in the NFL and that in the one year of Jacksonville’s relevance, he was their best player. He was also a defensive leader on a Super Bowl winning defense earlier this year with the Rams, while the Jaguars have gone backwards since trading him.
Final Verdict:
I’m not sure if generational is the right word, but Ramsey definitely fits the bill of a “presidential prospect” — a player who comes around every 4-8 years.
Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Ohio St. & Laremy Tunsil, OT, Ole Miss
While not officially labelled as generational, the aforementioned article by Eric Galko placed these two in the tier just below Ramsey. Elliott has been one of the best backs in the NFL since entering the league, although due to the nature of the running back position, there will always be the crowd against drafting running backs early. It also hasn’t helped he’s got a special utility player behind him on the depth chart in Tony Pollard.
As for Tunsil, if it weren’t for the video of him smoking a bong through a gas mask being leaked from his hacked social media account merely hours before the draft, he would have been the third pick in the 2016 draft.
He had special movement skills and to this day is still tied for my highest-graded offensive tackle prospect ever. He’s been a high-level pro, although the last few years in Houston his overall grades per PFF have fallen ever so slightly. He’s still one of the higher-paid players at his position in the league.
2017
Myles Garrett, EDGE, Texas A&M
Myles Garrett was advertised as the next big thing in the NFL at the EDGE rusher position. In fact, even from as far back as his freshman season with the Aggies. Matt Miller wrote back in October of 2016 that Garrett had been on the NFL’s radar “since he was 16 years old”, which for those who don’t know would have been back in 2011 or 2012.
Miller continued; “Garrett is an athletic marvel, but one of the standout aspects of his game has been his consistent improvement at Texas A&M. Many top-ranked high school players arrive on campus with a spotlight on them and never develop football skills. Garrett has been the opposite, staying off Twitter and instead focusing on refining his talent on the field.”
At the NFL Level
At 26 years old, Garrett has already racked up 56.5 sacks and has only been held under 10 once — his rookie season. He’s a consistent presence in the yearly defensive player of the year discussions and if it weren’t for Aaron Donald, he might be considered the best defender in the entire league (I said “might be.” Relax Pittsburgh fans). I’d say he’s more or less lived up to the billing.
Leonard Fournette, RB, LSU
After the 2017 scouting combine, it wasn’t uncommon to see Fournette talked about as the second-best player in the class and a top-five pick in the draft. Matt Miller had Fournette going number two overall to the San Francisco 49ers in his post-combine mock draft and said the following: “Fournette won’t answer every question mark on the 49ers offense, but he’s a dynamic, generational talent at the running back position. And in Kyle Shanahan’s scheme, Fournette can be a 1,500-yard back, given his explosion.”
At 6’0 and 240, running backs simply don’t move the way Fournette did at LSU. His combination of size, speed, and unmitigated power made him a nightmare for defenders. Just ask this defender from Ole Miss- that is if he’s not still part of the turf there in Oxford.