BACKGROUND KNOWLEDGE:
- Let me start by saying I am a Cowboys fan. However, that statement alone does not make me any more knowledgeable- or better to talk- about what the Cowboys should do in an offseason. I have a scouting background, schematic knowledge, a solid understanding of the salary cap, and a real gauge on contract and trade values. That is what I will lean on for this. This is intended to let Cowboys fans know what can be done by the team this offseason, and make the fanbase smarter as a whole. I’ll break down what I would do with the 2022 roster unit by unit, talk about Free Agency, trade targets, and the Draft, and give reasonings as to why for it all.
- Cap vs Cash: Every NFL team has the same salary cap, but not every team has the same liquidity in their money that make them worth what they are worth. The cap is very maneuverable, but some organizations simply don’t have the cash to pay some contracts, especially new, large signing bonuses. The teams who do have cash and use that advantage tend to have more success -the 2021 Rams are a prime example in recent memory. As for the Cowboys and this offseason, they have plenty of cash. They can do some “cap gymnastics” and spend lots of money on signing bonuses to maximize a championship window that feels like could be somewhat closed after 2024.
OFFENSE:
Quarterback:
- Extend Dak Prescott and lower his 2023 cap number. Prescott’s 2023 cap number of $49.1 million can be reduced by $23.8 million if they extend him. Prescott is a top 10 QB and Dallas doesn’t have a clear path to someone better. Extending him- especially before Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, and Jalen Hurts get paid- would be extremely wise. I could see this being anywhere from 2 years/$80M fully guaranteed to 3 years/$150M with $120M guaranteed.
Running Back:
- Get Ezekiel Elliott to take a pay cut. He’s loved here by this organization and is going to be here a while, so make it work.
- Extend Tony Pollard, if possible, but he’s more likely to leave in free agency. The wild card is how his rehab with his broken fibula goes and what that means for his contract negotiations. If Dallas believes they can’t let him go, I would personally try for a lower total cap hit with really high guarantees on a short-term deal. An example would be 3 yrs/ $21M, fully guaranteed, with a $12M signing bonus. Add $3M total in unlikely-to-reach incentives, like an All-Pro nomination, which doesn’t count against the cap. If Pollard’s rehab is going well by early March, Dallas must get a deal done before Saquon Barkley or Josh Jacobs get paid.
Wide Receiver:
- Pick up CeeDee Lamb’s 5th-year option and pay him before Justin Jefferson breaks the market with a contract that makes him the highest paid non-QB ever. I would try to be extending Lamb for 5 years/ $120M with $80M fully guaranteed over the life of the deal, $40M signing bonus.
- Address WR2 by trying to trade for another WR1 type unless they truly believe in Gallup to return to form. This WR core, as it stands, cannot afford a CeeDee Lamb injury. This is because Michael Gallup simply has not looked like a top WR2 since 2019, and Jalen Tolbert did essentially nothing in 2022. CeeDee Lamb takes a lot of big hits. Eventually one of them is going to make him stay on the ground for a little longer than normal. That’s a risk this team cannot afford. If they do make a move, prepare to cut MG in 2024 as a cap casualty. We love MG, but it’s business.
- Noah Brown walks. He was bad and led the league in “WR-turnovers-that-shouldn’t-have-been-turnovers”.
Tight End:
- Let Dalton Schultz walk. Jake Ferguson and Peyton Hendershot are fine, but there needs to be an upgrade to the TE room. Those two are not dynamic enough to be a formidable unit.
Offensive Line:
Left Tackle:
- Aim for Tyron Smith to return to his longtime home position in 2023. His contract ends after the 2023 season. His 2023 cap hit is $17.6M. Look to extend him for 1 year to lower his 2023 cap hit by just under $10M. This would be wise given his injury history.
Left Guard:
- Aim for Tyler Smith to slide into what should have been his 2022 home.
- Let Connor McGovern walk.
Center:
- Extend Tyler Biadasz short term. I could see something in the realm of a 2 year/ $14M deal with high guarantees to as potentially as high as a 3/ $27M deal.
Right Guard:
- Extend Zach Martin by 1 year into 2025. His cap hits combine for over $40M in the last 2 years of his contract, including $19.9M in 2023. An extension can lower that by $9.8 M. He’s a Hall of Famer that is still operating at an All-Pro level, so paying him isn’t an issue.
Right Tackle:
- Terence Steele is a restricted free agent, so I expect him to be tendered. An extension is up in the air and again dependent on his rehab and what he could be asking for in a new contract. He is most definitely a play you want back though.
DEFENSE:
Edge:
- Extend Demarcus Lawrence 1 year into 2025. He has a $26M cap hit in 2023, but he’s still great and he’s here for the long haul. He’s arguably the best run-defending EDGE in the league and still a plus level pass rusher. An extension can lower his 2023 cap by $11 Million.
- Keep edge depth with Demarcus Lawrence, Micah Parsons, Dorance Armstrong, and Sam Williams. Let Dante Fowler walk. He’s replaceable.
Defensive Tackle:
- Keep Jon Hankins or Carlos Watkins on a 1 year deal to have DT insurance.
Linebacker:
- Extend Leighton Vander Esch. He’s earned it. The off-ball LB market is somewhat loaded, so pay him before someone offers a $13M/year contract to a player on LVE’s level.
- Let Anthony Barr walk
Cornerback:
- Pay Trevon Diggs. He has earned it. I would imagine it is a 4 to 5 year contract around $22-24M per year, and at least 50% fully guaranteed.
- Jourdan Lewis and Anthony Brown’s futures are up in the air. I would at most keep one and let the other go. That means extending Brown and cutting Lewis or keeping Lewis and letting Brown walk. Lewis accounts for nearly $5.9M in 2023 and Dallas can save $4.7M of that if they cut him. I imagine both are gone though.
- S: One of the most secure rooms on the team oddly enough, Malik Hooker and Jayron Kearse are safe in 2023. Donovan Wilson’s future depends on what he asks for in a new contract. He had a good 2022, but there is large variance in what he could ask for, and that price decides whether he stays or leaves.
SPECIAL TEAMS:
- P Bryan Anger, KR/PR Kavontae Turpin, and LS Jake McQuaid/ Matt Overton are safe. K Brett Maher requires hard conversations only people inside that building can know about, and what the staff decides to do with him is something we have to trust. My only concern if he stays is where Maher’s mind goes after his first miss of 2023, especially if it’s early in the season.
COACHING:
Head Coach:
- Mike McCarthy surprised all of us. He was phenomenal in 2022 honestly, given the circumstances and what he deals with in the front office. I was wrong on him. You keep him. He handles all the HC duties well, prioritizes the long-term health of players, maintains control of the team without being a control freak, and he leads men well. He also wins a lot in the NFL, and I learn more and more every day just how hard that is to do.
Offensive Coordinator:
- You keep Kellen Moore. As someone who has done the work on studying this Cowboys offense, I can honestly say Moore is one of the tier 2 OC’s in the NFL, at worst. We cannot keep saying that Moore needs to be fired when he constantly has this offense with top production since day 1 of being the Cowboys OC in 2019. The Cowboys were at or near the top in points per game (3rd) , 3rd down conversion % (6th) , and Red Zone touchdown % (1st). They were 1st in all 3 categories in games Dak Prescott played. They’re a top 5 most productive offense since 2019 when Dak Prescott plays. This is with an OL who was 28th in Pass Block Win Rate in 2022 and Michael Gallup/Noah Brown ranking bottom 25 in average separation among 109 qualifying WR’s. If that is fireable, good luck finding someone outperforming it.
Defensive Coordinator:
- I think Dan Quinn wants to stay in Dallas unless found with an elite opportunity to be an HC. He’s not going somewhere that’s primed to tank with him first. He’s one of the league’s best DC’s. Keeping him is a necessity.
Special Teams Coordinator:
- Fassel needs to stay. He had a good special teams unit in 2022.
Position Coaches:
- Position coach wise, I still don’t truly believe in Joe Philbin, but the OL was better in 2022 than expected so I have to give him credit for that. We’re not in those meeting rooms and on the sidelines to truly evaluate how well he does his job, so I’ll admit I don’t know enough to have a firm opinion based in logic. We know RB Coach Skip Peete favors Elliott to Pollard and that is just not good in the year of 2023. I would let him go. Regardless, I trust the HC and Coordinators to have the right position coaches in place. I would personally love Mike Munchak to replace Philbin as OL Coach.
FREE AGENCY:
- Big Name Target: Washington Commanders DT Daron Payne. Payne is expected to walk and be the top DT of the 2023 Free Agent class. at 6’3” 320 lbs with pass rushing skill, he would be an incredible addition to this DL unit and would complete it, with an ability to play a variety of techniques. I would pay $20M/year for him with high guarantees, and that is doable because of previous cap creation.
- Potential Big Name Target: Indianapolis Colts DT Deforest Buckner. Buckner has 2 years left on his contract with about $40M in unguaranteed salary. Buckner will likely not play without guaranteed $ coming his way, and the Colts would put themselves in a financial bind by restructuring. I doubt they would extend him and I believe they will outright cut him if not traded for a cheap pick. If i’m Dallas, and he goes to the free agent market, this is who I try to get at DT if I am unable to get Daron Payne. Dallas must have more consistent interior pass rush to create a dominant DL.
Other Wants and Backup Plans:
- Minnesota Vikings DT Dalvin Tomlinson
- Detroit Lions WR DJ Chark
- Tennessee Titans LB David Long Jr
- Oakland Raiders TE Foster Moreau
- Backup OL
TRADES:
Main Targets:
- Houston Texans WR Brandin Cooks. Cooks would be an upgrade over Gallup at WR2, add the needed speed element this WR core needs, and only accounts for $10.3M in 2023 cap if acquired pre-June 1, unless they restructure him. I would think a 3rd + 5th round pick gets this done now, but I could see the Cowboys 2nd rounder being the price considering the Texans would eat $16M in dead money.
- Los Angeles Rams CB Jalen Ramsey. Ramsey is still a top CB, has been made available by the Rams, and would have a low 2023 cap hit of $5.6M if acquired before June-1. That trade would cost Dallas the 2023 1st round pick and maybe a little more, but would create a dominant CB duo between Diggs and Ramsey.
Backup Plan:
- Denver Broncos WR KJ Hamler. He’s in a contract year and provides a high end speed element. For 5th or 6th round pick price, that’s entirely worth it.
- Indianapolis Colts CB Stephon Gilmore or Kenny Moore. Both are in the last years of their contracts. Gilmore is an Outside CB and going to be 33 in September, but he’s still Gilly Lock and he’s affordable with a $9.9M salary. Kenny Moore will be 28 in August, but he’s a top tier Nickel CB and has no guaranteed money left with a $7.7M salary. I imagine Moore costs more than Gilmore because of the age difference, but would think it would take a mix of a day 2 and day 3 pick to get either of them.
DRAFT:
* Based on if Dallas keeps the listed pick
- 1st Round Targets: Illinois CB Devon Witherspoon, Penn State CB Joey Porter Jr, Georgia TE Darnell Washington (if Schultz walks) , North Carolina WR Josh Downs (if no WR acquired during FA), Alabama RB Jahmyr Gibbs (if Pollard walks)
- Day 2: Boston College WR Zay Flowers, Auburn EDGE Derick Hall, Iowa LB Jack Campbell, Texas A&M CB Jaylon Jones, Miss State CB Emmanuel Forbes
- Day 3: Depth OL, Depth LB, Depth DL, TE
WHY:
1. Why all the new contracts for current players?
- The Cowboys are in a window to win. It eventually will close, and we don’t know when. Capitalize now before your HoF OL and such guys retire. They are very cash-rich and can afford the signing bonuses it would take to guys. Get it done and maximize your window. It is also possible because the majority of this is extending your own talent, and we know that’s how this front office runs things. Extensions of the guys listed plus the Ezekiell Elliot pay cut can create about $60M in 2023 cap. The cap is also increasing from $208M to $220M. Do not let anyone fool you in terms of not being able to afford someone. The Cowboys can afford anyone they desire, it’s just a matter of acting on said desire if they have it.
2. How do you generally evaluate who to extend?
- Extending core pieces such as Dak, D-Law, Lamb, Diggs, and Martin should not scare anyone. You know they’re all at least very good and will be here a while. Pay them now to so you don’t pay them more later. Their prices will never decrease unless the player willingly decides to do that, but even so, that typically comes via a fully-guaranteed contract with a lower overall cap number. This becomes even more paramount when they are at very important positions, and all 5 of these guys are.
- Non-core starting pieces (Wilson, Schultz) or positions that are already overly invested in (RB) are all very situationally managed and vary from team to team. There are numerous scenarios that could happen for Dallas. They can’t pay all of these guys in most cases. This is a very nuanced area of roster building where a lot of things have to mesh and decisions can sometimes be made on the fly in free agency. The Cowboys coaching staff and pro scouting departments will have to be on their A-game here.
3. How is there enough cap space for all of these extensions/new contracts?
- Guys like Diggs and Lamb won’t even have their new contracts kick in until 2024 and 2025 respectively. You’re paying them each now, so you don’t pay them 20%+ more just a year or two later. Their positional counterparts get paid too, and that is leverage in a negotiation (Ex: AJ Terrell getting extended before Diggs. Diggs will want just as much plus some extra).
- You’re extending the 30-ish year-old vets to lower their 2023 cap hits and take your high cap/dead money lumps later. Teams maximize championship windows by planning to take financial lumps later. It’s not going full Rams to try and get the ring, but even if was exactly like the Rams, the Rams got a ring. They can be awful for the rest of the decade, and it was worth it. This method provides a slightly decreased chance at 1 ring but a substantial increase at 2 compared to LAR. Cowboys fans would lose their minds if this team actually won a Super Bowl, regardless of what happened after.
- The Cowboys can do these moves because they are cash-rich and can pay the signing bonuses to make it a win-win for the player and team. They also allow them to go make valuable free agent moves with what I call Mercenaries-for-Hire: short-term deals for known good vets that are trying to win now. They don’t really affect you in 2025. Mercenaries have the potential to make a unit entirely overpowered. Rob Gronkowski for the 2020 Bucs made their weapons overpowered. Von Miller for the 2021 Rams made their pass rush disgusting when you pair him with Aaron Donald and league-average players on the rest of the DL. Ramsey would make the Cowboys’ secondary overpowered. Daron Payne would make the Cowboys’ DL arguably the best in the league. Mercenaries significantly aid in getting the job done.
What about positional value?
- The previously mentioned non-core starting pieces is where positional value truly matters. You must stretch these dollars as far as they can go in terms of the ratio of money spent to production to maximize depth and minimize the holes in your roster. Like certain RB’s and LB’s DO matter, but it’s typically only the elite ones. Nick Chubb and Fred Warner provide more value than many good starters at more important positions, even on their own teams, but obviously, equally elite guys at more premium spots are more valued (Myles Garrett, Joel Bitonio, Trent Williams, Nick Bosa).
- Extending non-core starting pieces means you are projecting this guy to keep getting better Ex: Steele and Biadasz. In terms of their extensions, it is wise to take advantage of the fact that they are good enough to be valued starters but not good enough yet to get accolades. They can provide real surplus value with continued improvement given their young age. You’re only as good as your worst guy on the Offensive Line because it is more about not having a hole in it (Ex. Patriots) than it is having a few studs (Ex. Colts). If you have health, top-end talent, top-tier coaching, and no holes, you can have an offensive line as dominant as the Eagles. The Cowboys have the ability to get top-end coaching (Munchak), to combine with their top-end talent (Tyron Smith, Martin), and not have holes in the OL for the long term. They need to capitalize on that.
Conclusion:
- The Cowboys are not going to follow my ideas and plan to a T, they may only do a small handful of these things for all we know. This is to let Cowboys fans know that this entire plan is fully doable and affordable where they can build an overwhelmingly good roster in the same fashion that the Eagles or 49ers do. Them being a cash-rich organization is a benefit they don’t take advantage of often, and it is disappointing because it can be real competitive advantage if used wisely. Players want to play in Dallas for the sole fact that it’s a top 5 market with no state income tax. So give guys their money and make it hard for someone else to beat you on talent alone. It’s also easier for a coach to press the easy buttons, or the big play buttons in their playbooks when they have the talent that can flawlessly execute it.
Questions:
- If you have questions about any football-related topics, including this article, feel free to DM me on Twitter @blake_abraham
(All Salary Cap information is from www.overthecap.com)