Now to get into the detail… why does an analytics nerd love a run-stopping NT?
Everything about that sentence should be a joke. Nerds believe coverage > pass rush. Therefore nerds can’t love someone that has no pass-rushing moves outside of size? Wrong.
There are a few things that need to known:
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Coverage is known to be unstable year to year
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Pass Rush is known to be stable year to year
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More people in coverage, the better.
The third point is the big one here. More people in coverage is best. However, the NFL still runs a lot of the time, and having people in coverage means that they tend to be DBs. DBs tend to be worse against the run than pass rushers and linebackers. There is also the case where more DBs means more opposition rushes. The modern-day NFL is all about incentivising the run as rush EPA is almost always negative and pass EPA is positive. Therefore you want teams to rush more and more and that comes into the “More DBs = More Rushes” idea.
However, we have seen it where (mainly Chargers this year and Packers historically) put out more DBs and therefore prioritise the pass defence to some success. However, we famously remember the 49ers running all over the Packers. So how do you have a defence that works against both the pass and run? You need the DBs to counter the pass, and therefore you need a pass rush to work. But how?
You enforce your pass rush so that they can deal with only rushing 4. The Packers are a different team when Kenny Clark is healthy because they have an elite run stopper at NT. Clark is also the best pure NT for pass rush, which helps his value even more. But I would argue that he would be valuable even if he had no pass rush skills.
The Packers, also, have the options of Za’Darius (when healthy), Preston Smith and Rashan Gary to go alongside Kenny Clark to make a deadly foursome to target the QB. Zadarius and Gary can play inside, meaning that you can have only 4 players rushing the passer, dropping 7 into coverage. When you have 4 pass rushers and 7 in coverage, it is harder for the QB to find an open player.
Therefore, because you have 4 players who can get to the QB or stop the run, you have a bigger coverage unit. A bigger coverage unit means that you are more likely to get pressures and, therefore, sacks – the whole chicken-and-egg situation. My opinion is that better pass rushers is the most important part as there are only 4 of them versus the 7 in coverage. We have seen this with the 49ers too (Nick Bosa and Arik Armstead fronting a rotating Dline), who almost exclusively run 4 pass rushers.
What happens if you don’t have someone like Kenny Clark (an elite NT)? The Chargers happen. The Chargers under Brandon Staley let the 2nd most EPA to rushes in 2021 (-0.00 EPA). 9 games against the Chargers had a positive EPA performance in the rush game for the offence, which was a league-high.
Chargers only have Joey Bosa who, while one of the elite pass rushers in the league, can’t do it all himself. He needs help, and that is where Jordan Davis comes in. Davis would be able to block the inside runs almost by himself as their NT. Joey Bosa would block one edge, which leads to a conversation about the other edge. The idea that one player would change their defensive line isn’t true, but Davis would be a start.
I see Davis having the floor as an elite run stopper, which is essential in the scheme that the Chargers play. If he can reach his ceiling, he can be the best Defensive Interior player not named Aaron Donald. He reminds me a lot of Rashan Gary coming out, he clearly has the upside, but the floor is just his athleticism. Gary has taken three years to develop but is now one of the best Edge players in the league. Davis could easily do the same.
Therefore, if you want a team that can defend the pass and run, you need a great NT and Jordan Davis is that. I would draft Jordan Davis at #10 and wouldn’t complain if he went as high at #6.
