Each week I look at an active Twitter discussion point and analyse to see what the data says. Week 1, I discussed Zeke Elliott and Week 2, I discussed Kyler Murray. In Week 3, I will discuss Big Ben (formally known as Ben Roethlisberger and how bad he is currently playing.
Before analysing his recent play, a quick summary of his career is needed. After playing for Miami, Ohio in college, Roethlisberger was drafted at #11 in the 2004 draft (behind Eli Manning and Phillip Rivers). His number (#7) was retired by Miami, Ohio, after taking them to great successes.
Roethlisberger was the 3rd QB on the depth chart going into his rookie season, but injuries happened to both the starter and backup, making Big Ben the starter in Week 3. QBs Wins will say he had one of the best rookie seasons ever (13-0 in games he started), but advanced analytics say otherwise.
The Steelers, then, went on to win the Super bowl in 2005 and 2008 under Ben’s leadership and almost made it 3 Super bowl won in 2010. He has won many awards in his NFL career, including (but not limited to) 2x NFL Super Bowl Winner, 7x Pro Bowler, 2x NFL Passing Yards Leader, NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year and PFWA All-Rookie Team. The main thing that stands out there is the lack of All-Pro and NFL MVP.
When analysing Roethlisberger’s career, I’m going to split it into 2004-2010 (The Super Bowl Times), 2011-2017 and then individually for 2018-2021. To compare I will be looking at PFF Grade, ESPN’s QBR, EPA and CPOE. I, also, confirm my findings for rankings with Ben Baldwin’s CPOExEPA index.
Before we do that, lets just have a quick look at his career.
2006-2021 CPOE vs EPA/Dropback. Red Dot is Ben Roethlisberger.
2006-2021: Ben Roethlisberger Advanced Analytics Numbers
2006-2021: Ben Roethlisberger Advanced Analytics Rankings
2004-2010: The Super Bowl Times
As mentioned, Ben Roethlisberger made the Super Bowl three times between 2004 and 2010 in 2005 (winners), 2008 (winners) and 2010 (lost to the Packers). Wins are a team stat where the QB does have the most impact, though, so what do the numbers suggest?
2006-2010 CPOE vs EPA/Dropback
2006-2010: Ben Roethlisberger Advanced Analytics Numbers
2006-2010: Ben Roethlisberger Advanced Analytics Rankings
During that stretch of years, there were clearly 6 QBs that were in the elite category by themselves (Brady, Brees, Manning, Rivers, Rodgers and Romo) as shown by the graph above. However, Roethlisberger is in the next cluster of QBs alongside Schaub, Pennington, Warner and Garrard. These QBs have higher CPOE (less than the elite 6) but around the same EPA/Dropback as the others. Roethlisberger ranks 10th for his early career. PFF have him ranked in the top 6 in three of the five years and ESPN have him in the top 10 three times and just outside in another.
This ranking that I have given him aligns perfectly with Ben Baldwin’s EPAxCPOE index, which has him ranked 9th (0.01 ahead of Pennington).
2011-2017: Top 10 QB
2011-2017 CPOE vs EPA/Dropback
2011-2017: Ben Roethlisberger Advanced Analytics Numbers
2011-2017: Ben Roethlisberger Advanced Analytics Rankings
While no Super Bowls came to the Steelers during this time, Roethlisberger was clearly at the front of the pack for QB talent. There is a cluster of the top 10 most talented QBs during this stretch of play and Big Ben is clearly in the middle of it. The QBs in the cluster are Rodgers, Manning, Brady, Brees, Wilson, Ryan, Romo, Rivers and Cousins. Winston and Prescott are the other two within the cluster but have a smaller sample size (1579 for Winston and 1024 for Dak). The PFF grades also show this, with his worst ranking being 12th (2016) and 3x Top 3 QB grades (2014, 2015 and 2017). ESPN have him ranked in the top 10 in all but two years (one of those is 11th) and the other is 15th. All metrics agree that Roethlisberger was a top 10 QB at worst during this stretch of time.
I would rank Big Ben as the 6th best QB between 2010-2017, which lines up with Ben Baldwin’s EPAxCPOE index.
2018: Playing for a Contract
2018 CPOE vs EPA/Dropback
2018: Ben Roethlisberger Advanced Analytics Numbers
2018: Ben Roethlisberger Advanced Analytics Rankings
Heading into the 2018 season, Roethlisberger was a cemented top 10 pick at worst and he performed well. PFF gave him a grade of 78.2, which is good (well enough to rank 16th), while EPA/Dropback he ranked 4th and a CPOE ranking of 14th. The combo of EPA/Dropback x CPOE puts Roethlisberger in the 3rd cluster of players behind the elite players of Mahomes, Brees and Wilson and the 2nd cluster of Rivers, Fitzpatrick, Ryan, Watson and Wentz. Big Ben led the charge in the 3rd cluster, which is where the majority of QBs were. ESPN rank Roethlisberger highly in their metric, along with EPA/Dropback, while PFF and CPOE think he did good, not great.
I would rank Roethlisberger as the 9th best QB, while Ben Baldwin’s EPAxCPOE has him ranked 7th. I would have ranked Watson (12th) and Wentz (14th) higher than Baldwin did.
2019: Out for the Season
Having signed an extension to keep him at the Steelers until 2021, it was almost certain that Roethlisberger would be a one-franchise man. The contract of 2 years $68mil was a lot of money, but worth paying if he could continue to deliver the goods.
Unfortunately for the Steelers, Roethlisberger injured his elbow and didn’t play much in 2019 (only 64 dropbacks). This means that his season can’t be included in the analysis because of the too-small sample size.
2020: Comeback Player of the Year?
Roethlisberger’s injury was a serious one, and from the beginning, there were questions if he would ever return to his best. That said, he was one of the favourites for Comeback Player of the Year, and expectations were always high with the Steelers.
A lot of people got overhyped by the Steelers in 2020 due to their defence’s elite performances. They started the season 11-0 before a collapse to 12-4. During the stretch of 11-0, many analytics people were pointing out that it was unsustainable due to their offence and their main problem in the offence was Ben Roethlisberger.
2020 CPOE vs EPA/Dropback
2019: Ben Roethlisberger Advanced Analytics Numbers
2019: Ben Roethlisberger Advanced Analytics Rankings
PFF ranked him 25th with a 69.0 grade, with EPA/Dropback (0.07) ranking him 23rd and CPOE (-1.1) ranking him 28th. He is ranked in the 4th cluster (just), ranking him 24th. QBs that were worst than him and still have a job are Jared Goff (traded next offseason), Tua Tagovailoa (rookie) and Daniel Jones (sophomore), Carson Wentz (benched and traded next offseason). That makes it look even worse with two of the teams trading the QB as soon as they could, and the other two were a rookie and a sophomore (who will always be given another chance). Roethlisberger defenders could say it was due to injury recovery, meaning that the 2021 season is decisive.
2021 – Should have moved on:
It’s only been three weeks which means a small sample size, but the data is not looking good. Roethlisberger took a renegotiation to stay on another year, but it will likely be his last year in the NFL.
2021 CPOE vs EPA/Dropback
2021: Ben Roethlisberger Advanced Analytics Numbers
2021: Ben Roethlisberger Advanced Analytics Rankings
After Week 3, PFF has Roethlisberger as the QB31 with a grade of 55.5 and EPA/Dropback isn’t much higher, with him ranked 23rd (-0.04) and CPOE (-3.4) to be ranked as low as 30th. Small sample size means that clusters are not a great indicator yet, but he is in a cluster that includes Carson Wentz, Andy Dalton and Davis Mills – which I don’t need to say is terrible.
Roethlisberger is clearly the problem in the offence since coming back from injury and the Steelers should have used their #24 draft pick on a QB instead of Najee Harris.
This clip sums up his 2021 season so far.
Summary:
Ben Roethlisberger is a certified HOF QB with 2 Super Bowl Rings and over ten years as a Top 10 QB. But what is he now? I ranked him as a “meh” QB going into the season, which means there is nothing to be excited about, and he would need to break expectations for the team to be a Super Bowl contender. So far, Roethlisberger has done even worse than expectations were, which is disappointing.