It’s almost one month until Labour Day in the States, aka the dream weekend for Fantasy Football drafts, so it is the perfect time to post all the fantasy work that I have produced over the offseason.
I spent this offseason building a whole new metric for fantasy rankings – League Winner Predicts. I built it from scratch using NFLfastR based on the idea by Scott Barrett at FantasyPoints.com of Upside Wins Championships.
I wrote a research paper on my metric, which can be viewed on my website at ZacRogers.co.uk. It works using League Winner Score, which is the following:
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5 points for 30+ points
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3 points for 25+ points
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1 point for 20+ points
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1 point for Top 10 Weekly Ranking
I have four main tiers of players Platinum (today’s article), Gold, Silver and Rookie. Platinum has a hit rate of 90.5%, Gold 64.5%, Silver 1.8% and Rookie 3.9%. Each category can its self be split into at least 2 and today we focus on Plat 1 and Plat 2.
Platinum 1 (100%, 22):
The best of the best, there have been 22 players since 2013 to reach this classification – all 22 were League Winners. So no pressure for the 6 players that made the list this year. Those 6 are Dalvin Cook, Alvin Kamara, Ezekiel “Zeke” Elliott, Nick Chubb, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. I will go through the 6 players by position (RB, WR, TE) and ADP according to MyFantasyLeague.
Dalvin Cook, RB, Vikings (ADP #2)
Dalvin Cook was a League Winner in 2020 (the 3rd most valuable player) after scoring 338.8 points and 34 League Winner Score. As of the 25th of July, he has an ADP of #2, showing that he has faith from LW Predicts and ADP.
Alvin Kamara, RB, Saints (ADP #3)
Alvin Kamara has had a change in QB (from Brees to Winston) for the 2021 season, but that shouldn’t affect too many things. Kamara was a League Winner in 2020 (the 2nd most valuable player) after scoring 375.8 points and 35 League Winner Score. Kamara’s ADP is #3, showing continued faith in the Saints RB. In recent days, Michael Thomas has been sidelined making Kamara the best receiver on the Saints and arguably the highest ceiling we have ever seen for fantasy. I doubt he is going to break CMC’s 447.4 points and 64 League Winner Score, but I think he will have a career year (has to beat 353.2 points and 39 League Winner Score set in 2018).
Ezekiel “Zeke” Elliot, RB, Cowboys (ADP #8)
Zeke’s ADP has dropped from #3 in 2020 to #8 in 2021, this is not the biggest fall, but it is bizarre when nothing has changed. Zeke is not the best player to own in dynasty leagues, but for Redraft, nothing has changed. Zeke should be as good as ever. Zeke finished as the 20th most valuable player after scoring 212.6 points and 12 League Winner Score in 2021. My guess would be recency bias with people forgetting that Dak Prescott being injured would affect Zeke’s production. Zeke is being drafted late 1st round.
Nick Chubb, RB, Browns (ADP #11)
Nick Chubb has been underrated in fantasy for a long time. He has been Blue since 2019 and a League Winner in both 2019 and 2020 (meaning 2 out of 3 years he has been a League Winner) – even in 2018, he was only one game off. Chubb had an ADP of #104 in 2018, #16 in 2019, #17 in 2020 and only #10 in 2021. This shows that ADP trusts Chubb more, but he could potentially be even higher. Chubb is being drafted late 1st round.
Tyreek Hill, WR, Chiefs (ADP #9)
Tyreek Hill is the only WR to make this list and makes the Chiefs stack the most valuable in the NFL. Hill finished as the 7th most valuable player in 2020 (328.9 points and 26 League Winner Score). Nothing should change with the Chiefs being able to supply both Kelce and Hill easily. Hill is being drafted late 1st round.
Travis Kelce, WR, Chiefs (ADP #4)
Travis Kelce is arguably the most valuable player in fantasy to own being a TE. Kelce has been a League Winner since 2017 and last year scored 311.8 points and 27 League Winner Score, finishing as the 6th most valuable player (and that does not include any positional value). 2021 should be no different. Kelce is being drafted at #4!
Platinum 2 (80%, 20):
These players are the ones that League Winner Predicts is super high on, but the public doesn’t have the same faith. For me, these six players are the best values in the draft, and no one else gets close. I will have a lot of stock in them (and already do). The six names are DK Metcalf, Justin Jefferson, AJ Brown, David Montgomery, Diontae Johnson and Brandon Aiyuk.
DK Metcalf, WR, Seahawks (ADP #23)
DK Metcalf finished the 2020 season as the 15th most valuable player (after scoring 267.2 and 16 League Winner Score). The Seahawks do have a new OC (after the whole Russ Wilson offseason chaos, that is now resolved), but that should not affect Metcalf. The Seahawks were run-run-pass last year, and Metcalf still was super valuable to own. DK Metcalf is being drafted late 2nd round.
Justin Jefferson, WR, Vikings (ADP #25)
Justin Jefferson is another WR who has to cope with run-run-pass offence. Jefferson was the big rookie surprise last year as he finished as the 11th most valuable player. He may regress slightly in 2021, but even so he will perform in fantasy.
AJ Brown, WR, Titans (ADP #26)
Julio Jones being traded for may have affected Brown, but not too much. Brown was the 22nd most valuable player last year and should continue to get even better. There is some uncertainty, but that shouldn’t affect too much at all. Titans are another run-run-pass offence but a new OC could change that, but even so I’m not worried. Brown was some people’s WR#1 before the trade, and he should still be a top 5-10 WR for fantasy (on average 15 receivers are League Winners).
Diontae Johnson, WR, Steelers (ADP #55)
Diontae Johnson and Brandon Aiyuk tend to come in a pair for me. Johnson was a League Winner in 2020 after scoring 210.2 points and 11 League Winner Score after 6 games of 20+ points. Diontae is the clear #1 for the Steelers but contenders of Claypool and JuJu cause enough concern for his ADP to drop. He’s almost a guaranteed pick at his ADP.”
Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 49ers (ADP #59)
Aiyuk is, actually, the player I have the most stock in as of writing this article. Aiyuk was another rookie WR last year and came away with as a League Winner. Aiyuk holds the record for least valuable League Winner (182.6 points and 6 League Winner Score) after five games of 20-25 points and one game ranked in the top 10. Aiyuk returns as a sophomore with a new QB, and Kittle returns, but that shouldn’t affect him. Aiyuk is the safety blanket and should be used as the RPO guy meaning he should be immune to Lance.
Come back for more tomorrow as we discuss Gold 1s.
