OT Rules need changing, and everyone knows that. Once again, a coin toss dictates who could win the Super Bowl. Everyone agrees that both sides should be able to have possession of the bowl, but the method is up for debate.
The two main ideas have been giving each team one play to score a touchdown (essentially a 2 point attempt), and others have been calling for the ball at a certain point of the field (either in the “Red Zone”, halfway line or own 25).
Before we look at probability models, I’d say I would want a chance of a Touchdown to be about 50%. Scoring is fun and, therefore, a better chance of scoring would be best. I don’t want it too easy, though and for the game to go on forever. Before I look at the data, I would say that the best option is either a 2 point conversion or starting around the 20-yard line.
Using Ben Baldwin’s NFL4th model and NFLreadr, I can look at the probability of success to look at different approaches. Note that all data is from 2014 onwards. But how do they compare to the successful chances of a 2 point conversion?
2 point conversions have a 47.35% chance of success, according to NFL4th. Perhaps surprisingly, this is the equivalent of somewhere between a 4th&3 (49.5%) and a 4th&4 (46.4%). While the number is under the 50% target, it is close enough that I like the chance.
When looking at “Red Zone” starts, the sample size is much smaller than the other areas of the field we will compare to, but compared to 2 point conversions, the numbers are similar (1075 for drives starting at the opposition 20 compared to 819 2 point conversions) which is good. According to NFLreadr, the Touchdown success is 52.0% which is around 5% higher probability than the 2 point conversions. I think that makes sense logically with up to 8 plays to get the 20 yards against the one play 2 yards needed.
The equivalent probability of a 2 point conversion to a driveline starting yardage would be the 24-yard line (47.4%). But starting on the 24-yard line would look silly so let’s say the 25-yard line (47.2%).
But what about the 50-yard line and the own 25-yard line options? The halfway line has a Touchdown probability rate of 38.1%. That number is close enough to a 1/3 success rate, which isn’t bad. It would give defences a lot more chances (as shown in the %) and a more balanced attack. This would also give teams more options for going for FGs – even by the numbers. If we look at both ESPN 4th down model by Brian Burke, we can see that the chances of going for it compared to Field Goal, even by analytics, is relatively high. Giving the Head Coach three likely results (Touchdown, Field Goal and Turnover) puts extra jeopardy and more strategies involved. There is a 27.2% chance of a Field Goal on drives starting at the 50. This, in theory, would mean more fun for the audience. Looking at the sudden death 4&Goal approach, you would need to be on the 3-yard line (38.5% success probability) – warning small sample size of only 191 plays.