Check out yesterday’s article for the introduction piece for this series, but now we turn our heads to Gold 1s.
Gold 1s are top 12 picks that have some context added into their season. Historically, they have a hit rate of 93.3% since 2013 (28 out of 30). I’ll do some quick analysis on each of the 6 players. First of all, let’s introduce them; Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry, Saquan Barkley, Jonathan Taylor, Aaron Jones and Darren Waller. That is 5 RBs and a TE.
Christian McCaffrey, RB, Panthers (ADP #1)
Christian ‘CMC’ McCaffrey is coming off an injury plagued year in 2020 where he only played 3 games. In those three games, he scored 90.1 points and 12 League Winner Score and only one game off League Winner status. CMC is one of the best RBs ever in fantasy and holds the record season for the most valuable season in 2019 (447.4 points, 64 League Winner Score) and the 4th most valuable season in 2018 (380.5 points and 45 League Winner Score).
Derrick Henry, RB, Titans (ADP #5)
Derrick Henry has been a League Winner in both 2019 and 2020. Henry is Green due to DTN_10 (Titans invested in Darryton Evans with 3rd round pick in 2020). Henry will not be affected by Evans. Henry doesn’t have the same ceiling as the others but should be rushing enough to counter his lack of receiving game. Henry had one of the most remarkable seasons ever last year but was only the 4th most valuable season for 2020 (46th ever).
Saquan Barkley, RB, Giants (ADP #6)
Barkley is coming off an injury-plagued season, playing just one full game in 2020. Barkley was a League Winner in 2018 (rookie year) and 2019 (sophomore year), so expectations should be that he returns. Barkley’s 2018 season is the 7th most valuable season since 2011 (361.6 points and 41 League Winner Score). Expectations should be of his return to the desired status.
Jonathan Taylor, RB, Colts (ADP #7)
A close start to his rookie year, but a dramatic ending qualified the 2020 2nd round pick (#41) for Green in 2021. Taylor finished with 215.4 points and 10 League Winner Score to qualify via DTN_15 (Needed minimum of 100 points and 5 League Winner Score). Taylor did not get close to being a League Winner and finished two games off League Winner Status. With a full season as the RB1 for the Colts, the hope and expectations are that he will be a League Winner.
Aaron Jones, RB, Packers (ADP #12)
No one expected him to return to the Packers for 2021 but here we are. Jones at the Packers should be good for him, he has been a League Winner since he started for the Packers as the lead committee back (2019 and 2020). Jones should be in the same place as last year and have a very good chance at being a League Winner.
Darren Waller, TE, Raiders (ADP #10)
Darren Waller’s ADP is surprising (#10) even if he had a season of 251.9 points and 18 League Winner Score to finish as the 14th most valuable player in 2020. That said, position scarcity is a real threat for TEs and promotes them even further up the ADP Rankings. Waller has no more threat than last year in theory, with Agholor in New England and Henry Ruggs needing to step up.
More to come soon as we go through Green 2s.
