An interesting collection of players here, we have known greats but had injuries throughout their careers (Kittle), to sophomore players (Akers, Dobbins, Higgins, Jeudy) to the TEs (Mark Andrews, Logan Thomas, Noah Fant to name 3). Silver 2s have a hit rate of 30.8% meaning that there is a good chance that one or two of these players will succeed – my money would be on George Kittle and TJ Hockenson.
George Kittle, TE, 49ers
George Kittle is so hard to place, he’s not played a full season since 2018 (2019 and 2020 both injured), but he’s obviously the real deal. The other concern is that he is a premier blocker and is used like it. His route running % is not close to Kelce or Waller and that harms him. Kittle will most likely play the season in whole and therefore be a League Winner. He is a Silver prediction according to League Winner Predicts, but this is as low as I will have him. The players above him have a much better chance of being fantasy superstars, but the ones below probably have less. A good middle ground.
JK Dobbins, RB, Ravens
JK Dobbins has the same issue, but even more so with Lamar Jackson as the QB. Lamar will always be the primary rusher for the Ravens and that means his RBs ceiling and floor are so low compared to what you would expect from a run-run-run offence. Like many above, this ranking means I will have no stock in the player and honestly I prefer that.
TJ Hockenson, TE, Lions
TJ Hockenson is the other player who didn’t make it into Gold, but seems to have all the opportunities in the world. Hockenson will be targeted like crazy as the only good receiver the Lions have. Many have Hockenson as a top 3 TE this year (for me he is #5), but that doesn’t surprise me. He has the skills, he just needs to put a fantasy season together.
Mark Andrews, TE, Ravens
Mark Andrews showed his potential in 2019 before the whole Ravens offence regressed in 2020. A bounce back year is on the cards for the offence but with 1st round rookie pick Rashod Bateman leading the receivers, Andrews can’t be counted as a guarantee first target for Lamar Jackson. Lamar and the run-run-run offence means that I’m personally avoiding all players outside of the QB.
Dallas Goedart, TE, Eagles
Dallas Goedart is the Eagles TE1 and with the other receivers being rookie Devonta Smith and sophomore Jalen Reagor, Goedart should get his fair share of targets. The issue for Goedart and the other WRs is that Jalen Hurts is the QB and he has a head down, rush mentality to facing pressure. The only players I want to draft for the Eagles is Hurts and perhaps Miles Sanders and Devonta Smith.
Chase Edmonds, RB, Cardinals
Edmonds vs Conner is one of the biggest fantasy battles for the 2021 season and I have my money on neither. I don’t think either of them are going to be great owns but Conner has the value. I suspect it will be an equal committee or one will be the rusher (Conner) and one the receiver (Edmonds). The signing of Conner confused me and still does.
Tee Higgins, WR, Bengals
For some, Tee Higgins is the Bengals WR1 but for me, he is the clear #2. Higgins ADP of #61 means I will have no stock in him. He is a player that will take another jump in 2021, but with Chase around I’m not sure it will be enough. Will the Bengals have two WR League Winners in 2021? Maybe, but I’m not putting money on it.
Noah Fant, TE, Broncos
A stacked WR duo of Jeudy and Sutton leaves no space for a 3rd receiver and Fant is clearly the #3. He may be a good TE but fantasy is about volume and that is not guaranteed for the Broncos. Jeudy and Sutton will get all the targets meaning that Fant at his price is an avoid at all cost.
Courtland Sutton, WR, Broncos
Courtland Sutton and Jeudy come together as a pair. Both are extremely talented and you want on your NFL team, but fantasy is different. Sutton only played one game last season (week 2) meaning we couldn’t see how well he would do off his 2019 season. 2021 though has QB confusion surrounding the Broncos, a legit WR1 contender in Jeudy and Sutton coming off an injury. He’s big risk, big reward potential. His ADP of #65 is very tempting, but in the same ball park as Diontae Johnson, Kupp, Aiyuk, Golladay meaning I won’t have much stock in Sutton.
Logan Thomas, TE, Washington
Logan Thomas was the breakout TE from the 2020 season but the chances of going back to back are slim. McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, Dyami Brown and Antonio Gibson are all better options for Fitzpatrick to target. I suspect that the offence will cause some unexpected surprises but it won’t be because of Thomas.
Raheem Mostert, RB, 49ers
Raheem Mostert is meant to be the guy for the 49ers going into the draft but with Sermon and Mitchell being drafted, I’m avoiding Mostert. 49ers committee is near impossible to predict but people know its run-run-pass and therefore continue to spend big on their RBs. Avoid at their prices.
Damien Harris, RB, Patriots
Patriots RB committee is so much unknown but everyone seems to be buying into the Damien Harris Hype train. Personally I’m not for many reasons, but here are three of them. 1) White will be the receiving back 2) the rushing backs are always a committee 3) Cam Newton harms the RBs if he plays.
Jerry Jeudy, WR, Broncos
Jeudy was forced into the WR1 spot through injury in 2020 and didn’t produce as much as one would hope. You could say its due to his rookie year, his awful QB (Drew Lock), drops and probably more things. That said I think he’s good enough that he has a chance to be a League Winner, if he is the #1 target for the Broncos. Beat Writers are saying that depending on who is playing QB, that Sutton or Jeudy is their favourite target, meaning it’s a complete luck of the draw to see who is the best asset to own.
Deebo Samuel, WR, 49ers
The 49ers YAC role is between Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel, no question about that. The question is who do you think it will be. For me, it is Aiyuk as he is the better player, but I don’t make those decisions. If Deebo does get the role, at #77 ADP, he will be a League Winner.
Robby Anderson, WR, Panthers
Robby Anderson was the forgotten man in the Panthers trio last year but didn’t do well enough for fantasy purposes. He produced on the field, but that doesn’t translate to fantasy always. With Curtis Samuel out of the picture (now in Washington), the public think he could take the next step. A new QB in Darnold means that I think there is only enough for one receiver and DJ Moore is the better player.
Mike Gesicki, TE, Dolphins
The other TEs are actually good. Gesicki is not a good TE and plays in a stacked offence (Fuller, Waddle, Parker) meaning that his target share will be low. There are too many players in the offence and it just doesn’t make sense to why Gesicki has such a high ADP.
