Gardner Minshew is a 6’2 220lb senior with over 8,000 career passing yards, a 65% completion percentage, and a 3:1 touchdown to interception ratio. Yet few people seem to include Minshew among the quarterbacks in the 2019 draft class with a chance to be a long-term starter, and other shout from the rooftops that he is a star. So, I went through as much game film as I could find on him, dating back to his sophomore year at ECU and ending in Mike Leach’s air raid scheme. Here’s what I saw:
Strengths: Minshew has the quickest release of any college quarterback I have seen. It is lightning quick and incredibly efficient, relying on his legs and hips to generate velocity. He has enough arm strength to make tight window throws on short to intermediate routes, particularly inside the numbers. Minshew is head and shoulders above any other quarterback in this class when it comes to using his eyes to manipulate defensive backs, and as last season progressed, along with his comfort in a relatively complex scheme, he showed the ability to look to his second, third, and even fourth reads. As a graduate transfer, he came into a situation where a team was mourning a tragedy, and became a leader and led the school to a very successful season. His charisma, and ability to learn a new offensive scheme so quickly, were catalysts of success for WSU.
Weaknesses: Minshew has some legitimate physical limitations, both athletically and with arm strength. He’s never going to throw that 65yard bomb, even rainbow arcing. His deep ball accuracy and velocity are serious questions. He can get hung up on his first read at times, particularly when he determines where he wants to go pre-snap, His footwork in the pocket can get sloppy at times, causing inaccurate or late passes.
My Take: Minshew is far from a perfect prospect. And the amount of his production that occurred in an air raid scheme designed to produce numbers is concerning. His arm strength against NFL defenses is a concern as well. That said, Minshew has a chance to be a star. Production wasn’t always there at ECU, but plenty of his traits were. Originally set on transferring to Alabama to prep for a coaching career before Mike Leach came knocking on his door, he has an incredibly high football IQ and a good understanding of multiple schemes he will see in the NFL. Minshew is not a draft and start guy, but with development I believe he can be very good. In the right situation, he can be a long-term starter. At worst, he is a very good backup. I personally have him graded as a future starter with pro bowl potential. I’m not big on sleepers, but Gardner Minshew is one.
Ideal Landing Spot: A quarterback who wins more with intelligence than physical prowess, excels in the 5-19-yard offense with anticipatory throws and the ability to move defensive backs with his eyes. Sound a little perfect for the New England offense? The NFL should absolutely not let BB and co. get their hands-on Gardner Minshew, because under Brady’s tutelage and McDaniels’ offense built to win with a short, quick passing game he would be a perfect succession plan in Foxboro. I think he’s worthy of a second-round pick, especially with where New England will be drafting.