Photo Credit: TCU Athletics
College football is simple, whichever programs land the top recruits are going to contend in the College Football Playoff. The top recruits tend to be future NFL Draft picks and programs that put prospects into the league are the ones the best of the best want to play at to set themselves up for generational wealth. That’s why recruiting is the lifeblood of the sport, and why so many fans have their finger on the pulse of where their favorite schools stand in the recruiting rankings. With NIL, new transfer rules, and both conference realignment and playoff expansion on the way, even casual fans are paying attention to college football year-round.
Right now, it’s theoretically the quietest time of the year for the sport, but recruiting has managed to keep the talk rolling with things like official visits, commitments, Arch Manning watch, and even Marcus Freeman throwing shade at his alma mater. College football doesn’t stop, and the appetite for recruiting is only getting bigger. But when both programs and recruiting services are evaluating thousands of high school football players across the country each year, some future stars are bound to slip through the cracks.
The Alabama’s, Georgia’s, Ohio State’s, and Texas A&M’s of the world earn commitments from blue chip after blue chip, which means they’re getting the lion’s share of the top-100 NFL talent (those four schools landed 51 of the top 100 recruits in the 2022 class). With the way recruiting rankings work, five-star recruits are first-round talents (and there are approximately 32 in every class), high four-star recruits are Day 2 players, and the middle to lower four-star recruits round out the draftable players (there are over 350 four and five-star recruits in any given class). That means for other programs to compete, they must evaluate well and develop even better.
A three-star recruit is a guy who is worthy of playing at the Power Five level but isn’t someone the recruiting services see as a future NFL Draft pick. When a three-star ascends to being a starter it’s an impressive feat, but every year hidden gems make all-conference teams and become NFL Draft picks. Some programs have built their identity by finding and developing these players, so who will be the next non-blue chip recruit on the defensive side of the ball in the P5 to reach stardom in the NFL à la Aaron Donald, Chandler Jones, and Xavien Howard?
*All players recruiting rankings are based on 247Sports composite rankings which combines recruitment ratings from 247Sports, Rivals, and ESPN to provide an overall rating.
Interior Defensive Line: Calijah Kancey, Pittsburgh
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Three-star (2019)
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No. 850 nationally
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No. 63 defensive tackle
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No. 113 in Florida
For the first time since 2010, the ACC wasn’t won by Clemson or Florida State. Out of nowhere, after seven middling seasons, Pat Narduzzi’s Pittsburgh Panthers won the conference championship. A glow-up from first-round passer Kenny Pickett was a major reason why (as too was having Bilietnikoff winner Jordan Addison at receiver), but the relentless pass rush deserves a heap of credit too. The Panthers finished with the third-most sacks in the FBS (54), which might not come as a surprise with their recent history of putting defensive linemen in the NFL under Narduzzi.
Two years after Aaron Donald’s dominant season with Pitt, Narduzzi was hired to lead the program. Since he took over, he’s recruited and developed three former three-star recruits on the defensive line into NFL Draft picks (Jaylen Twyman, Rashad Weaver, and Patrick Jones II) along with having seven other defensive players drafted. Now, he returns most of the two-deep on the defensive line that helped turn in one of the most vaunted pass rushes in college football and it’s led by Calijah Kancey on the inside (and fellow three-star Habakkuk Baldonado on the outside).
To no fault of his own, the redshirt junior will draw comparisons to Donald simply because he’s an undersized star defensive tackle for the Pitt Panthers. It’s going to be dumb when it happens, but it will happen. After making first-team All-ACC in his first full season as a starter, the 6-0, 275-pound Kancey has built plenty of NFL Draft buzz in a stacked interior defensive line class. Coming off a 7-sack, 13 TFL season, Kancey is poised to be one of the most disruptive interior defensive linemen in college football.
Although his lack of size will scare some NFL teams off and impact his draft stock, Kancey is the definition of a gap-shooting 3-technique who has the ability to wreck run plays while providing serious pass rush ability on money downs. Rotating between 3-tech and 1-tech on a deep Pitt D-line, Kancey is often fresh and put in a good position to take advantage of lesser athletes trying to block him. He frequently gets off the ball in an instant and uses his natural leverage to get underneath linemen and beat them to gaps to blow up plays around the line of scrimmage. That same athleticism comes in handy as a pass rusher where his foot quickness, hand speed, and bend help him collapse the pocket.
The big concern with Kancey remains his size and strength. When he’s unable to shoot a gap and make a play, he can be washed out of run plays. Without the power to anchor down and hold the point, his inefficiencies on run defense will be taken advantage of in the NFL. The short-area quickness and effort he plays with helps make up for it in the ACC but playing with more pop in his hands and sand in his pants this season will help scouts live with his lack of size.
After about a season and a half as a starter, Kancey has shown he’s got the tools to be a modern 3-technique in the NFL who at minimum can be part of a rotation and contribute on passing downs. To take his game up another level and be viewed as a potential top-100 pick, Kancey’s pass rush repertoire needs to expand. He has two key moves as a pass rusher—win with speed and bend or hit them with a club swim—but he needs to build counters and changeups for when linemen adjust.
If Kancey becomes a more consistent player against the run and expands his pass rush plan, he could be one of the most unblockable defensive tackles in college football this season.
Pitt’s Calijah Kancey (#8) is a little ball of fury on the interior defensive line. Beats the RG with a lightning quick club-swim before going through the TE and drawing a hold on his way to a sack. Undersized but a top IDL to watch for the 2023 NFL Draft. pic.twitter.com/FiA56Se41n
— Bobby Football (@Rob__Paul) June 14, 2022
EDGE Rusher: Zion Tupuola-Fetui, Washington
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Three-star (2018)
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No. 811 nationally
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No. 52 outside linebacker
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No. 3 in Hawaii
The Pac-12 has been down on its luck for some time now—basically, since Pete Carroll and his two National Championships left USC for the Seattle Seahawks. Outside of the Chip Kelly (and sort of Mark Helfrich) reign at Oregon 10 years ago, the conference hasn’t been a national contender. One of the programs that looked like it could make west coast football relevant again was Washington. Chris Peterson went 32-8 between 2016 and 2018 with a College Football Playoff bid. Then after an 8-5 season in 2019, he stepped away and anointed Jimmy Lake his successor.
Long story short, Lake’s tenure lasted 13 games after issues with how he treated players, and his misses on the recruiting trail defined his lackluster time in charge. The Huskies should rule the in-state talent but have missed out on three of the four five-star recruits in the state over the last two classes (Ohio State landed two and Oregon the other). The saving grace of the program since Peterson left was winning the North in the COVID-shortened season (they ultimately had to opt out of the Pac-12 Championship due to COVID). That season marked the breakout of Zion Tupuola-Fetui.
In 2020, the Huskies, known for their defense, were led by three future top-100 picks in their secondary (Elijah Molden, Trent McDuffie, and Kyler Gordon) but the name generating the most was that of ZTF. Although ZTF played in just four games that season, he produced 7 sacks and 3 forced fumbles and put every offensive line in the Pac-12 on notice. Prior to the 2021 season, he tore his Achilles and managed just five games and one sack last season. He’s now back and ready to reinvigorate his draft stock.
It’s easy to see why ZTP went from reserve to second-team All-American in 2020, he’s a bull in a china shop. He’s a terrifying power rusher who can out-leverage tackles and shock them with the pop in his hands to throw them off balance. Once he’s got them on his heels it’s game over with his relentlessness to work through them to collapse the pocket.
To supplement his power, ZTF has violent hands and can work a club-swim/rip combo and a double swipe. The depth of his toolbox helps make up for his shortcomings as an athlete and his lack of bend to run the arc. Sometimes his athletic deficiencies can turn a quality rush into a nothing burger but his IQ to always stick his long arms out to swipe at the football has turned a few stymies by offensive tackles into strip sacks.
As a run defender, the effort always shows up on tape for ZTF and his power and leverage give him the potential to become a terrific edge setter. To hone in on his run defense he just needs to stick to his role more often and spend less time trying to be the guy making the play—it can lead to him losing the edge and being sucked in. The pieces are there for ZTF to develop into one of the best Pac-12 run stoppers.
Overall, for ZTF to return to form, he just needs to stay healthy. Another offseason to rehab his Achilles should help, and if he can continue to expand his pass rush plan, he has a chance to be one of the most pro-ready pass rushers in the 2023 NFL Draft class.
Really hope Zion Tupuola-Fetui can stay healthy this season because he’s such a talented pass rusher. Makes the strip sack off the swipe-rip look too easy. pic.twitter.com/M8wFfj3Bca
— Bobby Football (@Rob__Paul) June 13, 2022
Linebacker: Jack Campbell, Iowa
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Three-star (2019)
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No. 662 nationally
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No. 44 outside linebacker
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No. 4 in Iowa
Few programs get the most out of their players the way the Iowa Hawkeyes do, that’s a credit to Kirk Ferentz and his staff’s ability to identify and develop under-recruited kids in the midwest. That formula has helped Ferentz go 178-110 at Iowa while winning the Big Ten twice despite not being a national brand. The Hawkeyes are good at what they do, and what they do is get three-star recruits to the NFL. The bread-and-butter positions of the Hawkeyes have been offensive and defensive line, tight ends, and linebackers.
Those are positions where hidden gems can be found in the recruiting rankings and Ferentz has turned Iowa into an NFL factory at those spots. Being a linebacker in the Big Ten comes with some clout (thanks to guys like Dick Butkus, Chris Spielman, and Jack Ham), and Iowa has had eight drafted during Ferentz tenure and seven more make NFL rosters.
Right now, Ferentz has a linebacker leading his defense who could be the best of the bunch. Jack Campbell was a tackling machine coming out of high school in Iowa and it’s continued since he’s become a Hawkeye. In his second season as a starter, he was the defensive captain and led the Big Ten in tackles with 143 earning first-team All-Big Ten honors. That helped the 6-5, 243-pound Campbell earn top-100 buzz as a prospect before he opted to return for his senior season.
Coming off his breakout season, Campbell is in position to be one of the most productive defensive players in the country. His name is already appearing on preseason All-American lists, and he could be going toe-to-toe with Will Anderson and Noah Sewell (two projected first-round picks) for awards like the Bednarik, Butkus, and Nagurski. There’s also a good chance he’ll be in Mobile after the season as one of the marquee players at the Senior Bowl.
What makes Campbell such an interesting prospect in a world where off-ball linebackers are devalued isn’t just his size and aggressive style of play, but his fluidity and movement skills for an old-school thumper. Campbell is long for a Will linebacker, and he uses that length to both stack and shed offensive linemen and to press and stay attached to running backs and tight ends.
Sure, the times he gets downhill to work off a block and get a run stuff is what Big Ten football is all about, but it’s the plays where he flips his hips and carries a running back on a wheel route that makes him so desirable. His ability to play on passing downs while leading one of the nation’s top run defenses last year is exactly why he could become a Day 2 selection in April. There are few better tacklers in the FBS than Campbell, whose stopping power and long arms rarely lead to misses in space.
To solidify himself as a plug-and-play linebacker prospect, he needs to improve his instincts both as a run defender and in coverage. Too many times on tape he takes a false step and relies on his size and range to make up for it, that won’t cut it in the NFL. He needs to play with less hesitation in the box and better eyes when he zone drops. Those improvements will be the difference between him being viewed as a starter and a star at the next level.
Cornerback: Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson/Noah Daniels, TCU
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Three-star (2019)/three-star (2017)
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No. 1329 nationally/No. 712 nationally
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No. 113 safety/No. 73 cornerback
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No. 175 in Texas/No. 101 in Texas
For the first time in over two decades, TCU won’t start the season with Gary Patterson on the sideline. His 181-79 record makes him a living legend in Fort Worth and his fingerprints remain all over the Horned Frogs program. He helped lead TCU from the WAC to the C-USA to the Mountain West and finally up to the Power Five where they became a consistent threat in the Big 12.
Prior to Patterson being named head coach, TCU had just one double-digit win season post-World War II. From 2002 to 2017, the Horned Frogs had 11 double-digit win seasons. So, how’d he do it? By playing ferocious defense and getting the most out of recruits in Texas that bigger schools weren’t paying attention to. As the DC (1998-2000) and head coach (2001-2021), TCU had 28 defensive players drafted. Of those 28, 12 of them were defensive backs.
TCU has quietly become a go-to school for talented defensive back prospects and that’s going to continue even in Patterson’s absence. You’d be hard-pressed to find a better cornerback tandem in college football this year than the one the Horned Frogs will be deploying. If all goes right, Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson and Noah Daniels could look a lot like the Trent McDuffie/Kyler Gordon combo of the 2023 NFL Draft—they’re just in a different shade of purple.
Much like his uncle, and Pro Football Hall of Famer, LaDainian Tomlinson, Hodges-Tomlinson has earned all-conference on multiple occasions for TCU. Despite Hodges-Tomlinson’s slight frame (5-9, 177 pounds), he’s turned into one of the best cornerbacks in the nation thanks to his reaction speed, quick and crisp footwork, and physicality to attack the football. Over the last two seasons, he’s broken up 20 passes and picked off two more as a star in the Big 12.
TCU loves to play him in off coverage, whether man or zone, to take advantage of his click and close twitch to attack the ball—when he can see what’s in front of him, he’s at his best. Though he primarily plays on the outside, he best projects inside to nickel where his short-area quickness and lack of size are better suited to handle NFL slot receivers. The main concern with his game is his ability to compete with bigger bodies, hence why he rarely plays press.
As a technically sound, versatile, and physical nickel with ideal quickness, Hodges-Tomlinson has a strong chance to be a top-100 pick and become an instant contributor in the NFL. His weaknesses come more with his size than anything, but his feisty style should help hide it in the NFL, as long as he’s put in the best position to succeed.
Although Hodges-Tomlinson is the TCU corner with the accolades, his teammate is the one dripping with potential. It’s not hard to see why Daniels is frequently referenced as a prospect who, if he puts it all together, could be hearing his name called early in April.
Unlike Hodges-Tomlinson, Daniels is used primarily as a press corner where he can use his length and strong frame (6-0, 194 pounds) to jam receivers and throwing timing off. Though he needs to clean up his peddle and feet, his body control and size allow him to naturally mirror in press-man. Finding cornerbacks with his strength, length, and balance in press-man isn’t easy but the NFL won’t bite on him early if he doesn’t stay healthy. He’s entering his sixth season at TCU and has only played in nine games over the last three seasons with six starts.
To take the next step, Daniels needs to do a better job locating the ball in phase and disrupting the catch point. Too often he’ll lose his positioning when trying to get his head around, or he won’t get it around at all and waste a rep where he’s put himself in perfect position to make a play. When he’s been on the field over the last few seasons, he’s only broken up six passes and has yet to record an interception. Ball skills and health are the path to Daniels becoming the prospect who flashes brilliance on tape.
With TCU’s penchant for playing cover 1 and cover 3, both Daniels and Hodges-Tomlinson are well versed in staying attached to a receiver in man and flipping their hips and running to play in the deep third. Their contrasting playing styles allows TCU to put them both in the best position to succeed and with new defensive coordinator Joseph Gillespie coming over from Tulsa both of them will be in a great position to continue to build draft buzz.
TCU’s Noah Daniels showing why you never give up on a play. If he can stay healthy he should finally have the breakout season they’ve been waiting for in Fort Worth. His athleticism and mirroring ability in press are why he’s a legit NFL prospect, just needs to clean up technique pic.twitter.com/wL0fRq7IIx
— Bobby Football (@Rob__Paul) June 14, 2022
Safety: Christian Morgan, Baylor
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Three-star (2018)
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No. 626 nationally
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No. 42 safety
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No. 85 in Texas
When Matt Rhule took over Baylor, he focused on finding track athletes, undersized stars, and physical football players in the state of Texas who were overlooked because they were far from finished products. Those players became the cornerstones of a program he elevated each year (from 1-11 to 7-6 to 11-3) and Dave Aranda continued that formula going from 2-7 in his first season to 12-2 with a Sugar Bowl win in 2021.
Both defensive-minded head coaches have helped eight defensive players get drafted since the 2020 NFL Draft, in this past class alone three defensive backs out of Baylor were selected (Jalen Pitre, JT Woods, and Kalon Barnes). All three of them hail from the state of Texas, and none of them were rated higher than a three-star recruit. Those three helped the Bears finish 10th in the country in points allowed per game (18.3), and now with them gone another three-star from Texas must step up.
Christian Morgan is entering his third season as a starter on Baylor’s defense and is poised to follow in the footsteps of Pitre and Woods, the other two starting safeties for the Bears last year who both became Day 2 picks. He primarily played as a two-high safety last year, opposite Woods with Pitre down low as a nickel/defensive weapon, where his hard-hitting style allowed him to patrol the middle of the defense.
As a two-deep safety, Morgan’s eyes and instincts in zone helped him protect a backend that rarely gave up big plays. Though he’s not the most natural cover safety, he rarely bit on eye candy (motion, play-action, etc.) which ensured he was never out of position. His understanding of what offenses were doing helped him become a steady force that would unload on any receiver trying to make a play over the middle.
More natural around the line of scrimmage, Morgan did see some opportunities to play in the box where his size matched up well with tight ends in coverage. He was also deployed at times in an overhang position to help as a force player against the run—he handled slots well with his aggressiveness around the line.
An explosive tackler with high-level take-on skills, Morgan was at his best when he could get downhill as a run defender. His stopping power led to plenty of car crash contact between the tackles and he never hesitated to pull the trigger and tangle with running backs. With Pitre gone, he could see more time in the box/slot as Aranda’s chess piece which should lead to even more production (84 tackles, 4 TFLs, 3 interceptions, 7 pass breakups).
For Morgan to hear his name called in the same range as his former running mates at safety, he needs to show looser hips, cleaner feet, and improved long speed this year. As solid and well-rounded as he is, NFL teams will always attack a stiff safety that lacks range. Hopefully, Aranda does deploy him in more creative ways this season to allow him the opportunity to show what he can do on tight ends and in space as a chess piece and box safety. If he can fill the void left by Woods and Pitre, NFL scouts are going to be pounding the table for a guy with his mental makeup.