It’s finally here. We can all stop speculating for days on who’s going to go where and what teams are going to “shake up the draft”. At 8PM tonight, everything we thought we’ve known (or at least most of it) will be exposed as a lie and fans across the league’s 32 teams are going to be throwing parades celebrating a good draft… or throwing tomatoes at their television screens. All that being said, why not take one more kick at the can when trying to figure out just what the heck is going to happen tonight. This is my predictive mock draft for the 2022 NFL Draft. If you want to know what I would do if I were the GM in charge of each team, I covered that yesterday. Today is about looking into my crystal ball and giving my best guess at what happens tonight. Let’s hope this turns out better than last year’s- I fell hook, line, and sinker for the Mac Jones to the Niners smoke.
1. Jacksonville Jaguars- Travon Walker, EDGE, Georgia
There’s been smoke for weeks that this was going to be the pick and now, earlier in the week, Walker overtook Aidan Hutchinson in the Vegas odds for the number one pick. Walker is what some would describe as “built in a lab”. Simply put, they don’t make many like Walker at 6’5, 272 with a 7-foot wingspan and a 4.51 forty time. Jacksonville gets a boom or bust freak athlete at #1, but if they’re able to hone his traits and develop him from “athlete” to “EDGE rusher”, they could have one of the truly special players in this class and make skeptics (such as myself) look foolish.
2. Detroit Lions- Aidan Hutchinson, EDGE, Michigan
This is simple. The Lions have always wanted Hutchinson to be the pick and now with Jacksonville taking Walker, they’re getting the guy they’ve always wanted. The noise about Malik Willis here is just that, noise.
3. Houston Texans- Ahmad Gardner, CB, Cincinnati
This is the first pick where I’m not entirely sure what’s going to happen, but If I had to guess, it’s going to be Sauce Gardner because head coach Lovie Smith’s system depends on good corner play and the Texans don’t have that currently on their roster (granted they don’t have much of anything). This is the first “surprise” of the day.
4. NY Jets- Kayvon Thibodeaux, EDGE, NY Jets
Connor Rogers of Bleacher Report said on Monday’s episode of the NFL Stock Exchange Podcast that the Jets are a team that’s “comfortable” with Kayvon Thibodeaux and his “character”. I put the character in quotations because there’s no real concerns with Thibodeaux’s character, it’s just the NFL anonymous scouts talking about how a player has interests outside of being a football player and doesn’t think about the sport 25 hours a day and 8 days a week. Pure nonsense. As for what the Jets are getting with Thibodeaux, they’d be getting the best pass rusher they’ve had in at least six or seven years since Calvin Pace retired and someone who profiles a lot like Josh Allen or Aldon Smith with a smidge of Brian Burns thrown in for good measure- in other words, the kid’s good.
5. NY Giants- Evan Neal, OT, Alabama
The Giants are going to want to build a juggernaut of an offensive line and the potential to put Evan Neal at right tackle on day one across from Andrew Thomas has new general manager Joe Schoen grinning from ear to ear.
6. Carolina Panthers- Kenny Pickett, QB, Pittsburgh
The Panthers are stuck between a rock and a hard place with this pick. The GM doesn’t care about the head coach’s future because they’re on separate timelines and Matt Rhule needs a QB because he’s likely getting fired if things go awry. Rhule gets his QB in Kenny Pickett, the only QB in this year’s class who has any business seeing the field this year. Scott Fitterer sees this pick as either a high-risk pick or potentially as a Josh Rosen pick if Rhule isn’t in the building next year.
7. *TRADE* New Orleans Saints- Ikem Ekwonu, OT, NC State
So, this is dicey, but the Giants don’t want to be picking this close together. There’s too much pressure in doing so. On the other hand, the Giants don’t have the cap space to be selecting 3 first-round players this year. The details of this trade are New York trading #7 overall to the Saints for #16, the Saints’ second-round pick (#49) and a third-round pick next year. With this trade, the Saints get their franchise left tackle in Ekwonu. Icky Ekwonu is a mauler in the run game, something I imagine head coach Dennis Allen will want to do with their rushing attack led by Alvin Kamara. If there’s a tackle more suited to step in the colossal void left by the departure of Terron Armstead, I’d bet that the Saints would think Ekwonu falling this far is a sign to move up.
8. Atlanta Falcons- Malik Willis, QB, Liberty
There’s a reason that Atlanta kicked the can down the road last year by not selecting a QB when they arguably should have, it’s because they needed to evaluate the roster. GM Terry Fontenot should be looking at a wide receiver with this pick, but I think that owner Arthur Blank has final say in the draft and takes an Atlanta native with the most upside at the position in Willis. He develops for a year behind Marcus Mariota and the Falcons focus on getting weapons later in the draft.
9. *Trade* Baltimore Ravens- Jordan Davis, DL, Georgia
This boils down to two reasons- the Seahawks don’t like the board as it lays and trades down. Baltimore is in need of a player who moves the needle in a draft where there aren’t many and trades up for a difference-maker on the interior in Jordan Davis. This move costs Baltimore pick 14 and their 3rd round pick.
10. NY Jets- Drake London, WR, USC
London makes the most sense fitting in that Jets receiver room. The Jets need more targets for second-year QB Zach Wilson. This has been a selection I’ve been thinking is the pick for about a month.
11. Washington Commanders- Kyle Hamilton, SAF, Notre Dame
This is a case of a player falling due to positional value. Washington pounces on one of the best players (the best on my board) in the draft still being there and go with a BPA approach.
12. Minnesota Vikings- Derek Stingley Jr, CB, LSU
New GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah comes from an analytics background so he’s going to want to look at a young player who plays a premium position and being a plus athlete is the cherry on top for this selection. Stingley is all of that and all signs have pointed to his injury being fully healed. It’s risky but it could have huge rewards.
13. Houston Texans- Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi St.
Charles Cross goes for a slight tumble with the way the board has fallen and as a result, the Texans get their potential star tackle of the future. How does he fit as a right tackle? That’s the question they’ll have to answer going forward, but that will be on the coaching staff to get the best out of him. He’s the best pass protector in the class and the Texans should focus on what he can do instead of what he can’t.
14. Seattle Seahawks- Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa
This screams Seattle unfortunately. I like Trevor Penning to a point, but I’ve never understood the first-round hype. As for how he fits with the Seahawks, they don’t have a starting tackle on their roster and he fits the style of player they look for at tackle. He’s got to clean up his penalties but he’s a tenacious “ass-kicker”.
15. Philadelphia Eagles- Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington
The Eagles don’t care about size profiles it seems (looks at Devonta Smith last year) and they still employ Avonte Maddox and are slated to give him prominent playing time. That changes with this pick. McDuffie could be the best nickel corner to come out of this class. He’s got outside corner skills, but his arm length and size kick him inside. Nickel defenders are starters in the modern-day NFL, so this pick is extremely important.
16. NY Giants- Jermaine Johnson, EDGE, Florida St.
The Giants have gone a few years without an EDGE rusher. It’s been a long time since Osi Umenyiora, Justin Tuck, Michael Strahan, and Matthias Kiwanuka were there, and they need someone who has the juice to get to the QB. Johnson’s had a pre-draft rise that saw him go from fringe first round up to a potential top 10 pick, so this is the sweet spot in terms of value for him.
17. LA Chargers- Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama
This is an absolute robbery as Williams falls due to injury and teams taking other positions. Williams would be ready to go by October and would be a perfect complement to Keenan Allen and Mike Williams as he brings an abundance of high level speed to help Justin Herbert take this offense to the next level.
18. Philadelphia Eagles- Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio St.
This is a sign that Howie Roseman has learned that Jalen Reagor was a bad pick- like, a very bad pick. Garrett Wilson profiles similarly to Terry McLaurin, someone the Eagles have seen plenty of over the last few years. I understand that the Eagles will have taken a WR in the first in 3 straight years and it would be 4 straight years of a wideout within the first two rounds, but the team has only hit on one of those players in Smith. They need to give Jalen Hurts all the potential weapons they can so that next year sets up a make-or-break season for the former Alabama and Oklahoma signal caller.
19. New Orleans Saints- Chris Olave, WR, Ohio St.
I called my shot with this pick in yesterday’s article with New Orleans getting Olave at pick 16. In this predictive mock, he happens to still be there at 19. The Saints desperately need another receiving target across from Michael Thomas for Jameis Winston to throw to. Olave is the best route runner in the class with good hands and he’s got something they also need more of- SPEED!
20. Pittsburgh Steelers- Desmond Ridder, QB, Cincinnati
The Steelers find themselves in a pickle. The front office has all but assured they’re taking a QB in round one but with Willis and Pickett going off the board within the first 8 picks, it’s a steep asking price to move up to draft either of the extremely risky signal-callers. In this case, they stay put at 20 and select what many in NFL circles believe to be “the next QB in line” in Cincy QB Desmond Ridder. Ridder was a three-year starter for the Bearcats and was instrumental in their offense putting up enough points for them to make history and be the first non-power 5 school to make the college football playoff. One could argue he’s a safer pick than the two drafted ahead of him and could push Mitch Trubisky to a backup role in his first year.
21. New England Patriots- George Karlaftis, EDGE, Purdue
Since when does Bill Belichick care what the media consensus on a player is? Never. Karlaftis is a first-round player on my board, but I seem to be in the minority. The team still needs EDGE help, especially after trading Chase Winovich earlier this offseason. Think Ryan Kerrigan with this selection.
22. Green Bay Packers- Logan Hall, DL/EDGE, Houston
Green Bay let Za’Darius Smith go in the offseason and it opened a hole in their defense. I think Hall could play as a pure EDGE if they wanted him to but he also has the versatility to play as a moving chess piece across the defensive front, swapping out Dean Lowry on occasion at 5-tech as well. This is the type of defender the Packers have valued in past years, so while this might seem like a shock now, I could absolutely see them going with Hall earlier than expected.
23. Arizona Cardinals- Zion Johnson, IOL, Boston College
This is the pick I have the least amount of confidence in because the Cardinals have gone with gimmicky defenders that don’t have a defined role in five of the last eight drafts. That being said, the offensive line that they currently have is in shambles. Kyler Murray is already unhappy with the team so passing on an offensive lineman that can shore up the interior would be foolish. Johnson has the ability to play any of the five positions on the offensive line, so there’s the Cardinals’ need for position flexibility that they covet so very much.
24. Dallas Cowboys- Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas
Jerry Jones sees a wide receiver (his favourite position) from his alma mater sitting there at pick 24, and the card is already in by the time Roger Goodell announces they’re on the clock. He won’t be able to help himself. If Burks is still here tonight, I assure you, this is a no-brainer given Jerry’s draft tendencies.
25. Buffalo Bills- Breece Hall, RB, Iowa St.
The Bills wanted to take Travis Etienne in the first round last year but got beaten to the punch by the Jacksonville Jaguars so they take a running back with pick 25. Yes, positional value yada yada yada, but this team doesn’t have a lot of needs and they can’t depend on Devin Singletary and Zack Moss consistently. Consistency is Hall’s game as he scored a TD in 24 straight games in Ames. He’s a lot like Joseph Addai coming out of LSU and during his career with the Colts.
26. Tennessee Titans- Tyler Smith, OT, Tulsa
Tennessee is still trying to find an answer at tackle after the Isaiah Wilson pick blew up in their face back in 2020. Right now Dillon Radunz is moving from guard to right tackle, meaning they have a space open for a player like Smith. With Smith, you can see him taking the La’El Collins route in that he’s a college tackle who will start at guard and then potentially kick back out to tackle over the course of his rookie deal. He also brings an “edge” to his game that coach Mike Vrabel will love.
27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Lewis Cine, SAF, Georgia
Tampa has most of their secondary entering free agency after next season and is going to be making some very difficult decisions when it comes to roster construction. They can’t pay everyone. What Lewis Cine brings is exactly the type of safety that new head coach Todd Bowles loves because he’s reminiscent of how Bowles played in the secondary as a player. This is a seamless player/team fit.
28. Green Bay Packers- George Pickens, WR, Georgia
Packers surprise #2. They pick a wideout after years of neglecting the position. They have no other choice given the state of their receiver corps at the moment. They also take a H/W/S player in Pickens who would be picked higher if he hadn’t missed the entire 2021 season with an injury (minus the national championship game).
29. Kansas City Chiefs- Devonte Wyatt, DL, Georgia
A mini-run here on Bulldogs as Wyatt comes off the board a little later than some might expect. He’s 24, had a soft breakout year (meaning that he wasn’t truly elite) and has had some character concerns arise as of late. The Chiefs have shown in the past that they’re ok with taking players with character flags
because of the locker room environment they have. This pick helps their front seven which is woeful outside of Chris Jones and gives them a ready-made player that can make an impact right away.
30. Kansas City Chiefs- Andrew Booth Jr, CB, Clemson
DeAndre Baker and Rashad Fenton are currently starting at corner for the Chiefs, so a corner is a must for the team this year. The wideout can wait til pick 50, they need to get a corner more urgently. Andrew Booth shouldn’t still be here, so they snap him up.
31. Cincinnati Bengals- Kenyon Green, IOL, Texas A&M
The Bengals still need to address the interior OL and Kenyon Green takes a slight tumble down the board because of teams addressing other needs. Green allows them to have flexibility between tackle and guard, but also another option outside of hedging their bets on the development of Jackson Carman.
32. Detroit Lions- Devin Lloyd, LB, Utah
How Devin Lloyd made it this far, I’m not entirely sure, but the Lions make sure they get a potential leader of their defense to go along with Hutchinson. He’s definitely a kneecap biter, so coach Dan Campbell will love him. He’s the top linebacker in this year’s class and the second level for the Lions’ defense is pretty baren.