Two weeks into 2021 and Kyler looks the real deal. He’s currently 5th highest for PFF (84.8), 5th for QBR (71.6), 9th for EPA/Dropback (0.32) and 6th for CPOE (8.6).
Looking at the data, it is hard not to see why Kyler Murray is up there as one of the favourites for MVP. There have been 12 players who have a CPOE (according to NFLfastr) of above 5% and EPA/Dropback above 0.25 since 2010.
The MVP went to Rodgers (2011), Manning (2013), Ryan (2016) and Rodgers (2020). The others were Rivers (2010, Rodgers had 0.24 and 5.1%), Brees (2011, Rodgers also did it), Rivers and Rogers (both 2013, when Manning also did it), Romo in 2014 (Rodgers had 0.31 and 2.6%), Palmer in 2015 (should have won it, I wrote about this when discussing Cam Newton last year), Josh Allen (2020, Rodgers did it).
That means that, of course, Kyler Murray should be one of the favourites if he can maintain the rate he is at. The issue is that there are 5 others who are on track after two weeks of play (Tyrod Taylor, Russell Wilson, Teddy Bridgewater, Patrick Mahomes and Baker Mayfield) and some of them are real quality. Tyrod Taylor is injured for an unknown time, and Teddy Bridgewater has only played the Giants and Jaguars.
But that leaves us with Russell Wilson, Patrick Mahomes and Baker Mayfield as all viable candidates for the MVP.
Summary:
Kyler Murray was probably being overrated by the fans coming into the season, as shown by his rookie and sophomore performances. But after two weeks should Kyler be the favourite for MVP? It is hard to say yes, but he is one of the guys.
Predicting MVPs is a big betting market, and, therefore, there is a lot of analysis done on it. Kevin Cole (at PFF) has his metric, which has Kyler currently as 6th favourite. Some research found by Timo Riske and added onto by Anthony Reinhard showed that it takes until week six for metrics to stabilise, and therefore after two weeks, there are too much unknown.